能源效率测度和资源优化配置的非参数前沿面建模方法研究

Energy and environmental efficiency evaluation modeling, energy saving and emission reduction related resources allocation modeling, and relative cost and benefit estimation modeling are considered as the foundation of improving energy management performance. Currently, there still exist several shortages on the non-parametric frontier analysis based efficiency evaluation and resources allocation modeling, such as, arbitrarily choosing the direction vector in the direction distance function based efficiency measure, ignoring the potential contraction of frontier when measuring productivity, ignoring the possible inappropriate shadow price when solving the dual optimization program, and lacking the consideration of complementarity and substitutability relationship of input and output factors when allocating resources and estimating cost and benefit from energy saving and emission reduction process. Focusing on the above shortages and based on the non-parametric frontier efficiency evaluation framework, this project performs the following studies: designing the endogenous mechanism of identifying desirable and undesirable outputs related direction vectors; designing the mechanism of choosing appropriate disposability assumption on undesirable output; designing the mechanism of reconstructing contracted frontier; designing the mechanism of avoiding non-positive shadow price and searching consistency shadow price; and designing the independent iteration and adjustment scheme for undesirable output emission rights and integrated evaluation scheme for potential gains from resources allocation. Based on these mechanisms proposed, new or modified energy and environmental efficiency evaluation and productivity evaluation models, energy saving and emission reduction target decomposition and related resources allocation models, and emission reduction cost and benefit estimation models will be developed. These newly developed models and mechanisms will be applied to China's regional energy efficiency evaluation issues, and the empirical results will verify the effectiveness of the models and mechanisms, and provide decision supports for promoting the performance of energy management.

针对能源环境效率测度、节能减排相关资源优化配置及其成本效益估算开展理论方法和建模研究，是科学提升能源环境管理绩效的前提和基础。当前基于非参数前沿面分析开展的建模研究尚存在诸如距离函数方向向量选取随意性大，忽略效率前沿面潜在收缩塌陷和影子价格识别方向不一致等问题，以及资源配置和成本效益估算中较少考虑要素互补替代关系等不足。针对上述问题，本项目基于非参数前沿面建模理论，研究设计更加科学的建模机制，包括期望与非期望产出方向向量内生机制、非期望产出自由处置性选择机制、前沿面收缩重构机制、负向影子价格规避和一致性影子价格寻优机制、非期望产出排放权非独立迭代调整机制等。在此基础上，构建新的或改进的能源环境集成效率和生产率测度模型、节能减排目标分解和资源优化配置模型、减排成本和潜在效益增量估算模型。结合能源管理现实需求开展应用研究，验证建模机制和模型方法的有效性，为提升能源管理绩效提供决策支持。

针对能源环境效率测度、节能减排相关资源优化配置及其成本效益估算开展理论方法和建模研究，是科学提升能源环境管理绩效的前提和基础。本研究主要完成了以下工作：设计优化了非参数前沿面建模机制，包括期望与非期望产出方向向量内生机制、非期望产出自由处置性选择机制、前沿面收缩重构机制、负向影子价格规避和一致性影子价格寻优机制、非期望产出排放权非独立迭代调整机制；在此基础上，构建了改进的能源环境集成效率和生产率测度模型、节能减排目标分解和资源优化配置模型、减排成本和潜在效益增量估算模型；结合能源管理现实需求开展了应用研究，验证了建模机制和模型方法的科学性和有效性，为提升能源管理绩效提供了决策支持。研究取得了一些创新性的研究成果：发表和录用项目负责人作为第一和通讯作者SCI/SSCI论文18篇、EI论文1篇、普通期刊论文2篇；出版中文专著2部、英文专著章节2章；完成政策咨询报告2份并得到政府部门采纳；申请发明专利1项，获得软件著作权1件；获得国家能源局能源软科学成果二等奖1项、国际学术会议最佳论文奖1项、发表期刊年度最佳论文奖1项、北京高校青年教师社会调研优秀项目二等奖1项、中国能源经济与管理优秀论文1项；新入选ESI前1%高被引论文和前1‰热点论文1篇，被人大复印报刊资料全文转载中文论文1篇；作为客座主编出版SCI期刊特刊（能源经济与气候政策建模主题）3期；截止2018年12月31日，根据Google Scholar统计论文被引用260余次，根据Web of Science统计论文被引用130余次；培养和协助培养博士后出站2人、博士毕业2人、硕士毕业5人；参加国际学术会议20余次，其中做大会报告或特邀报告7次；协助举办学术研讨会8次；赴美国、瑞典、挪威、英国等开展国际学术交流7次，与马里兰大学、奥斯陆大学、悉尼科技大学等学者合作申报获批基金、合作发表论文、举办联合研讨会，建立了稳定的国际合作关系。