集聚开发引导的城市增长边界管理策略：集约与效率耦合的视角

China is still in the stage of rapid urbanization. It is very important to establish Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) management strategy for forming a reasonable urban pattern. China is a developing country with a big population and little land. The main social contradictions in the new era is converted into people's growing need to better life and unbalanced contradiction between the full development. Focusing on the intensive use of land is the inherent requirement of more people and less land and unbalanced development. Focusing on the development of the efficiency of the city is the inherent requirement for developing countries not fully developed. This project will be based on the cluster development through the UGB tool applied to spatial planning system, and based on the comparison of domestic and foreign UGB management practice on differences in concentration index as the basis of classification, and then select a few big cities in China and study the efficiency of different city intensive agglomeration index in classification and evaluation. Then the multiple causality analysis model is constructed, and the structure equation method is used to explore the coupling mechanism of the intensive and efficiency of different agglomeration cities. Finally, by using system dynamics, describing the parameters of aggregation, intensive and efficiency, and through sensitivity analysis, UGB management strategies of different concentration index cities are put forward. This project aims to provide theoretical basis for promoting the organic integration of land use planning and urban and rural planning, as well as promote the coordinated development of large and medium-sized cities and small towns.

我国仍处在城市化快速推进阶段，科学确定城市增长边界(Urban Growth Boundary,UGB)管理策略对构建合理城镇格局极为重要。我国是人多地少的发展中国家，新时代社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾，土地集约利用是人多地少与不平衡发展的内在要求，城市发展效率是作为发展中国家不充分发展的内在要求。本项目定位于将集聚开发理念通过UGB运用到空间规划体系中，在比较国内外UGB管理实践的基础上，以集聚指数为分类依据，对我国几大城市群中不同集聚指数城市的效率与集约进行评价；然后运用多重因果分析与结构方程方法，探索不同集聚指数城市的集约与效率耦合机理；最后利用系统动力学，通过敏感性分析提出不同集聚指数城市的UGB管理策略，从而为推进“多规合一”，实现土地利用规划和城乡规划等有机融合，为构建大中小城市和小城镇协调发展的城镇格局提供理论依据。

本项目旨在找出集约和效率的正向耦合的状态和条件，探索内在规律，从而为推进“多规合一”、实现土地利用规划和城乡规划等有机融合以及大中小城市和小城镇的协调发展，提供科学的指导。本项目在国内外城市增长边界管理的实践比较基础上，以集聚指数为分类依据，以人口、土地、GDP 为三大核心指标，通过构建我国UGB管理在集约与效率方面的评价指标体系，对我国几大城市群中不同集聚指数城市的集约与效率进行评价。继而，重点探索不同集聚指数城市的集约与效率耦合机理，最终提出不同集聚指数城市的UGB管理策略。在理论层面，在文献梳理、实地调研与数据统计的基础上，辨析和总结国内外城市增长边界（UGB）管理的实践差异，在既往研究成果基础上，继续深化研究集约与效率视角的城市增长边界管理，进而探索与我国国土规划和城市化战略相适应的城市增长边界管理新理论。在方法层面，借助结构方程模型（SEM）探索不同集聚指数城市集约与效率的耦合机理，建立集约与效率耦合的概念模型，运用系统动力学方法（SD）建立集约与效率耦合的系统流图，对不同集聚指数城市进行不同增长边界管理的多情景模拟与差异分析，获得与现实更加贴合的数据，从而提出更加合理实用的城市边界管理策略。在应用层面，围绕不同规模城市集约和效率的耦合关系，运用系统动力学方法（SD）对城市增长边界管理策略进行模拟，充分考虑不同区域国土资源禀赋和社会经济发展程度等方面的差异，形成更加符合当前我国城市管理实际需求的不同集聚指数城市增长边界差异化的管理策略。研究为国土规划纲要的实施，尤其是为集聚区的国土资源开发、保护与整治提供科学指导。同时，对推进我国新型城镇化战略与主体功能区战略也具有重要的理论和现实意义。