区域碳减排潜力调控机制与政策研究

China is in the process of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization. In view of a profound contradiction of emission reduction and development, the shortage of the carbon emission space becomes a rigid constraint in the process of modernization. This study uses a main line of the system analysis, makes the complexity theory as the foundation and sets a goal of digging out the regional carbon emission reduction potential. Based on the analysis of the spatial difference of regional carbon emission in China, this study refers to the carbon emission intensity as the object, identifies the influencing factors and explores the mechanism of its action. It constructs the quantitative relation model between the regional carbon emission intensity and the key factors based on SAP. And it provides the analysis on the feasibility of a medium and long term carbon emission reduction targets. By applying Genetic Algorithm, an multi-objective constrained optimizing model of regional carbon emission intensity is constructed. It also performs a policy simulation of medium and long term carbon emission reduction plan and measures the regional carbon emission reducing potential and the optimal reduction paths in different scenarios. According to the Game Theory analysis among the beneficiaries in carbon emission reduction, it distinguishes the trend of behaviors of the subjects in the reduction. And constructs a incentive and restrictive mechanism that reflects the fairness and efficiency which is cooperated with the types of administrative control, market oriented and public participation. Finally, this study will recommend the policy on reduction potential of regional carbon emission based on the conflict between the carbon emission and economic development level. The research achievements is expected to enrich the theory systems of carbon emission reduction, provides a support for the scientific decision-making of the regional energy conservation and emission reduction.

我国正处于工业化和城市化快速发展的进程之中，面临减排与发展的深刻矛盾，碳排放空间的不足将成为现代化进程中的刚性约束。本研究以系统分析为主线，以复杂性理论为基础，以挖掘区域碳减排潜力为目标，在对我国区域碳排放空间差异分析的基础上，以碳排放强度为研究对象，识别其影响因素，探究其作用机理；基于模拟退火规划算法创建区域碳排放强度与关键因素之间的定量关系模型，对中长期碳减排约束性指标进行可达性分析；引入遗传算法，建构基于多目标约束性条件下的区域碳排放强度优化模型；对中长期碳减排方案进行政策仿真，测度不同情景下的区域碳减排潜力和最优减排路径；根据碳减排利益相关者的博弈分析，判别减排主体的行为走向，构建行政管制型、市场主导型与公众参与型相配合的体现公平与效率的激励约束机制，进而提出基于碳排放与经济发展水平差异的区域碳减排政策建议。研究成果有望丰富和完善碳减排理论体系，为区域节能减排科学决策提供支持。

我国经济社会发展面临减排与发展的深刻矛盾，碳排放空间不足成为刚性约束。挖掘区域碳减排潜力，制定科学调控机制具有重要意义。项目组历时四年半，在国家自然科学基金资助下，收集数据10万余个，运用管理科学理论与方法进行了有针对性、创新性的研究，完成了项目的预期任务。（1）构建区域碳减排潜力研究的理论体系。将能源问题置于区域经济社会发展的总体框架之下，界定了碳减排潜力的内涵，揭示了系统间的正负反馈机制和作用机理，重构了由多种因素相互影响而构成的碳减排系统，识别了关键要素，创建了由概念体系、理论体系和方法体系组成的碳减排潜力研究框架。（2）分析了我国各省区、各行业碳排放的空间分布特征和时间演变趋势。（3）基于STIRPAT等模型动态考察了区域碳排放的驱动因素，基于改进的LMDI指数分解模型考察了行业碳排放的驱动因素和贡献率。（4）创建了基于模拟退火规划算法（SAP）的碳强度预测，基于遗传算法（GA）的碳减排潜力预测模型，首次创建了碳强度与主要影响因素之间的定量模型，从而测算出山西省“十三五”碳减排约束性指标可以完成，优化后碳减排潜力为0.97 t/ 万元GDP，提出的具体实现路径为区域完成减排目标提供了决策支持。（5）基于雅克比矩阵创建了碳减排利益相关者的演化博弈模型，定量分析了主体的减排行为取向，构建了体现公平与效率的节能减排激励约束机制。（6）对两个典型行业建筑业和交通运输业进行了重点研究。研究表明，建材是撬动建筑业碳减排的关键要素，建筑业碳排放在空间上呈现出集聚特征，H-H集聚区是碳减排的关键区域；交通运输业碳排放在空间上呈现出“东高西低”及阶梯变化的特征，在时间上，交通运输业碳强度存在绝对收敛性，随时间变化逐渐降低。促进关键区域、关键行业及关键要素实现减排可撬动整体低碳转型。（7）形成了一批应用性强、落地性好的成果，被山西省煤炭厅、山西省国资委、山西煤气化总公司、山西生态环境研究中心等政府和企事业单位采纳。