异质性生产技术下的我国省区碳排放绩效、减排潜力及减排路径研究

The scientific evaluation and measure of the carbon emissions performance and emissions reduction potential for each province in China is of much sense. It is the fundamental premise for China's carbon emissions reduction target to distribute fairly, economically and reasonably. Considering that the provinces have some intrinsic property differences in geographical location, market conditions, resource endowment and some other aspects, also their influences to the carbon emissions, this proposal takes production theory as a foundation and joins the meta-frontier function and environmental production technology to study the formation mechanism of the production technology heterogeneity related to the carbon emissions. Then based on this, the carbon emissions performance model and potential measure model are constructed to discuss the static, dynamic and differences of the carbon emissions performance of the provinces in China, and analysis the source and characteristics of the carbon emissions reduction potential under multidimensional case. Furthermore, this proposal compares the adaptability and sensitivity to different reduction paths of each province under economy and feasibility principles, thus, to search out the best reduction path which is accord with the actual production technology for each province and achieve the win-win opportunity between carbon emissions reduction and economic growth..The above study can expand the method system for evaluating carbon emissions performance and reveal the internal theory root of the differences of carbon emissions. The same time, it can provide some reference to the method and policy aspects for implementation of China's carbon emissions reduction target in 2020 and effective response to the climate change.

我国省区碳排放绩效和减排潜力的科学评估与度量是国家碳减排目标得以公平、经济、合理分配的根本前提。考虑到各省区在地理位置、市场条件、资源禀赋等方面的固有属性差异及其对碳排放的影响作用，本项目以生产理论为基础，将共同前沿函数（meta-frontier）与环境生产技术相结合，研究与碳排放相关的生产技术异质性的形成机理，并以此为出发点，构建系列碳排放绩效和潜力测度模型，探讨我国省区碳排放绩效的静态、动态表现及其差异性，分析多维度情形下的碳减排潜力来源和潜力特征，进而在经济性、可行性等原则下比较各省区对不同减排路径的适应性和倾向性，探寻出符合省区实际生产技术的最佳减排路径，以实现碳减排与经济发展的共赢。.通过上述研究，可丰富碳排放绩效的评价方法体系、揭示碳排放差异的内在理论根源，同时也可为我国2020年碳减排目标的落实和有效应对气候变化提供方法与政策层面的借鉴。

碳排放绩效和减排潜力的科学评估与度量是碳减排目标在各层面得以公平、经济、合理分配的根本前提。考虑到主要碳排放主体在地理位置、市场条件、资源禀赋等方面的固有属性差异及其对碳排放的影响作用，本项目以生产理论和投入产出分析为基础，开发了系列与碳绩效相关的测度模型，并将其在国别层面、省区层面和城市层面进行了应用。主要成果可概括为： .（1）项目将共同前沿、方向性距离函数、数据包络分析等方法进行了有效结合，提出了考虑生产技术异质性的多种碳绩效静态、动态测度模型及其减排潜力分解模型，同时拓展了可识别碳排放驱动因素的生产分解分析方法和碳转移测度方法。.（2）不论是国家之间还是区域之间，碳排放绩效和减排潜力都呈现很大的差异性。在中国，节能减排绩效总体表现为东部沿海地区高、西部内陆地区低，但 “追赶效应”也较为明显，区域差异性正在逐步缩小。管理无效和技术差距是导致节能减排绩效损失的两大来源，其中，管理因素是中国能源过度消耗和二氧化碳过度排放的主要来源。.（3）进一步挖掘中国节能减排潜力、提高绩效水平，需要在把握地区固有属性差异的基础上完善节能减排绩效衡量指标、发挥技术进步功效、加快节能减排管理制度的优化与扩散。.本项目的研究工作可以丰富碳排放绩效的评价方法体系、揭示碳排放差异的内在理论根源，同时也可为中国碳减排目标的落实与应对气候变化提供方法与政策层面的借鉴。