宏-微观联动视角下区域碳排放达峰机制及实现路径研究

The peak target of the national carbon emissions need to implement to regions eventually. Due to the imbalance of regional development in China, the regions which have strong economic relevance need to achieve the peak of carbon emissions together. Methods such as environmental Kuznets theory, and complete decomposition technique, and regional input-output analysis, and extended STIRPAT model, and multi-objective optimization methods and so on will be utilized synthetically. Firstly, the long-term trend and short-term fluctuations between the regional carbon emissions and economic growth will be analyzed. The carburizing factor and carbon emission reduction of regional carbon emissions will be explored. Secondly, the similarities and differences peak of regional carbon emissions will be forecasted and analyzed. From the perspective of macro-micro linkage, the peak mechanism of regional carbon emissions will be established. How the intrinsic factors and external policy factors of carbon emissions influence on the peak of regional carbon emissions will be analyzed. Thirdly, carbon emissions influence factors will be included to a unified framework from a global perspective of the steady growth of regional economy and the peak target of carbon emissions. This problem will be analyzed Systematically through being established multi-objective optimization model of the peak of the regional carbon emissions. The implementation path of the linkage peak of regional carbon emissions will be explored. Lastly, how Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaborative area drives Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning, and Shandong to achieve the peak target of carbon emissions of the bohai rim region will be explored. The prioritization scheme of the peak target of the regional carbon emissions will be designed rationally. The scientific basis will be provided for different policies on the reduction of regional carbon emissions.

全国碳排放达峰目标最终需要落实到地区层面。而我国区域发展不平衡，需要经济关联性较强的地区之间实现碳排放联动达峰。拟综合运用环境库兹涅茨理论、完全分解技术、区域投入产出技术、拓展的STIRPAT模型、多目标优化等方法。首先，探讨区域碳排放与经济增长间的长期趋势和短期波动，探寻区域碳排放的增碳因素和减碳因素。其次，预测并分析区域间碳排放峰值及达峰时间的异同。从宏-微观联动视角下，构建区域间碳排放达峰机制，分析碳排放内在影响因素和外部政策因素对区域碳排放达峰的影响机理。再次，从区域经济平稳增长和碳排放达峰的全局视角，将碳排放影响因素纳入到统一框架内，进行系统优化分析，探寻区域碳排放联动达峰的实现路径。最后，选取环渤海区域为典型案例，探究以京津冀协同区为中心，如何带动山西、内蒙古、辽宁和山东实现环渤海区域碳排放联动达峰。合理设计区域碳排放达峰路径的优化方案，为制定区域差别化碳减排政策提供科学依据。

全国碳排放达峰目标最终需要落实到地区层面。而我国区域发展不平衡，需要通过经济关联性较强的地区之间实现碳排放联动达峰。本项目综合运用环境库兹涅茨理论、LMDI分解、弹性脱钩模型、拓展的STIRPAT模型、Tobit模型等方法，以环渤海经济区和黄河流域为典型案例，探讨了区域碳排放及其影响因素的区域异质性，预测了区域碳排放达峰的峰值与时间，探寻了区域碳排放联动达峰的实现路径。研究发现：首先，区域碳排放及其影响因素均存在明显的空间异质性，经济快速增长仍是区域碳排放量增加的主要驱动因素，能源强度则会抑制碳排放量的增长。能源结构效应和能源强度效应对三次产业碳排放起到抑制作用，发展水平效应和就业规模效应对产业碳排放均起到拉动作用。其次，区域碳排放与经济增长之间存在长期趋势及短期波动特征。以黄河流域为例，黄河流域碳排放与经济增长之间存在明显的倒“U”型环境库兹涅茨曲线；黄河流域整体碳排放与经济增长之间弹性脱钩状态大致经历了由增长连接到弱脱钩再到强脱钩的过程，脱钩趋势向好；流域内各省区碳排放与经济增长之间脱钩状态存在区域异质性。黄河流域内的碳排放呈现出较强的空间集聚特征，且大部分省区之间碳排放呈现出高—高集聚的现象。其次，黄河流域内各省的碳排放之间存在显著的溢出效应。再次，以环渤海经济区为例，研究了区域碳排放达峰问题。发现环渤海经济区内各省碳排放达峰的时间和峰值存在显著差异。北京市和天津市将于2025年之前达峰，燃煤量已经大幅度下降。山东省和山西省能源结构偏煤，能源强度过高，而可再生性能源的替代率相对较低，将于2030年之前达峰。辽宁省产业结构存在偏重问题，能源强度较高，将于2027年实现碳达峰。河北省可再生能源利用技术相对先进，将于2026年之前实现碳达峰。内蒙古自治区本身能源强度降低较快，但可再生性能源的利用率提高缓慢，有望与全国同步达峰。根据以上结论，提出了区域碳排放联动达峰的实现路径，为制定区域差别化碳减排政策提供科学依据和数据支撑。