2030年碳排放达峰目标视域下的我国区域碳市场模拟研究

China committed to achieving the peaking of CO2 emissions by around 2030 in the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, and carbon trading is an important carbon reduction mechanism among the three suggested in the Kyoto Protocol. International experience has shown that carbon allowances and trading should be divided into main two phases. Thus, it is of great scientific significance and practical benefit to systematically study the regional carbon market in the first phase. The regional carbon market system established in this project includes an initial carbon emission permit allocation mechanism for each province, carbon emission permit trading model, and trading performance evaluation model. In the context of reducing carbon emissions to meet the peak target, this project synthesizes techniques from management science, econometrics, operations research, experimental economics, and climate change economics et al. In this project, based on study of China’s carbon peak target in 2030, we design a carbon emission permit allocation mechanism that considers both efficiency and equity principles. We produce a carbon trading model and perform simulations of trading based on experimental economics. Furthermore, this project assesses the performance of carbon trading according to the simulation trading results by IAM produced by ourselves. Finally, we propose recommendations for the construction of legal and supervisory systems for the carbon trading market based on the results of our simulations and studies of carbon trading in the EU as well as other countries. It is expected that the results of this project will advance research into carbon emissions peak, as well as theoretical and applied aspects of the regional carbon market, but they also provide useful decision-making suggestions to help China meet its carbon reduction and energy-saving targets.

我国在《中美气候变化联合声明》中承诺将在2030年左右碳排放达到峰值，碳交易是《京都议定书》建议的三种减排机制中重要的一种。国际经验表明大国的碳排放权分配与交易宜采用两阶段模式，系统研究第一阶段区域碳市场具有重要的科学意义。碳市场包含配额分配、交易机制和绩效评估等方面。本课题以我国承诺2030年碳排放达峰为背景，结合管理科学、计量经济学、运筹学、实验经济学、气候变化经济学等多学科技术方法，在2030年我国碳排放达峰相关研究基础上，设计兼顾效率和公平的区域碳配额分配机制，构建区域碳配额交易模型并利用实验经济学方法模拟交易，根据模拟交易结果运用本课题开发的IAM模型评估交易综合绩效。在模拟研究基础上参考欧盟等碳市场相关实施经验，给出我国区域碳市场法律体系和监管体系建设的建议。以期推进我国碳排放达峰研究和区域碳市场分析方法及应用的进展，为我国顺利实现2030年节能减排目标提供路径支持和决策参考。

碳交易是实现减排目标和减排成本最小化的重要手段，而配额分配是实现碳交易的前提。项目在对碳排放达峰情景进行分析基础上对我国区域碳配额分配和和交易机制开展了系统研究。主要研究成果包括：（1）基于1970-2013年14个碳排放已达峰的发达经济体历史数据，探讨其二氧化碳排放的演变趋势，从而发现不同发达经济体碳排放进程中的规律性，为中国碳排放达峰提供借鉴；（2）从系统的角度构建联立方程组模型，考察自身或其内在扰动因素对碳排放的动态作用机理，基于构建的联立方程模型，通过对系统内外生变量的合理预测分析未来我国碳排放的发展趋势；（3）采用固定成本分摊模型（FCAM），尝试将公平性原则加入到效率分配模型中作为约束条件，在确保系统整体平均效率最大化的基础上，使分配结果尽可能向公平分配结果靠拢，构建兼顾效率和公平的区域碳配额分配机制；（4）采用倍差法和改进后的DEA模型从短期（现实）和长期（潜在）两个角度来模拟分析碳交易试点政策能否带来经济红利和环境红利。项目研究工作在Science of the Total Environment、Resources, Conservation and Recycling、Journal of Cleaner Production等国内外期刊发表论文27篇，项目主持人第一作者24篇，通讯作者3篇，其中中科院一区论文11篇，1篇论文入选ESI热点论文，5篇论文入选ESI高被引论文；出版专著1部。以项目研究成果为支撑，项目主持人2017年江苏省青蓝工程中青年学术带头人期满考核为优秀等级，项目成果获江苏社科应用精品工程二等奖、江苏教育教学与研究成果三等奖等。