嵌入水资源和环境排放的社会系统可用能利用核算、模拟与评价

The development of thermodynamics brings new thinking ways and insights for management science research. New tools and methods are provided for the homogeneous synthetic analysis of society systems correspondly. Based on thermodynamic exergy analysis methods, this research proposal intends to extend the field of traditional exergy accounting, incorporate important environmental resource elements (e.g., water resources and greenhouse gas emissions) into the accounting budget, and summarize a set of unified accounting methods for the integration of resource exergy fluxes, environmental exergy fluxes and social exergy fluxes covering traditional resources (e.g., fossil fuels, metal minerals and biomass), water resources, environmental emissions, capital and labor. The detailed connotation and basic algorithm of exergy flows will be elucidated systematically based on the recent progress in exergy analysis. Meanwhile, the society system is diagrammed as a general network model with several independent and complementary subsystems. Furthermore, an exergy-based systems account for the China society will be carried out based on the novel social exergy accounting framework. The exergy inflows from the natural environment into the society, between other countries or regions and the society, between the sectors of the society, and the outflows into the natural environment from different sectors are explored. Afterwards, the systematic frame and flux figure of the China society in the corresponding time period are presented, and related indicators such as exergy conversion efficiency are proposed to evaluate the element flux, efficiency, utility and structure levels of the whole system and concrete industrial sectors. Finally, the overall state, status and development trend of exergy utilization by the China society will be revealed from thermodynamic insights. Corresponding resource and environmental policies for sustainable development management will be addressed.

热力学的发展为管理科学研究带来了新的思路和视角，也为社会系统同质综合分析提供了新的工具和方法。本项目将基于热力学可用能分析方法，尝试纳入水资源、温室气体排放等重要环境资源要素，归纳集成综合传统资源（化石燃料、金属矿物、生物质资源等）、水资源、环境排放以及资金和劳力的社会系统可用能利用统一核算方法体系，并针对一般社会系统的特点，构建社会系统可用能损耗网络模型，在此基础上以代表性年份的中国社会为应用案例，开展分截面（不同产业部门）和分网络（产业部门之间以及部门与外界之间的要素交互）的系统可用能利用核算，辨识中国社会不同要素可用能流的利用特征与损耗过程，明晰横向和纵向的系统要素关联模式，进而构建可用能转换效率等指标，评价系统总体以及具体产业部门的要素流率、效率、功用与结构水平，最终从热力学视角诊断我国社会可用能利用现状、问题、影响因素与演进趋势，提出相应的可持续发展管理对策。

本项目目的在于纳入水资源、温室气体排放等重要环境资源要素，归纳集成社会系统可用能利用统一核算方法体系，构建社会系统可用能损耗网络模型；以代表性年份的中国社会为应用案例，开展不同尺度、不同要素可用能流系统核算，解析中国社会系统可用能利用特征与损耗过程，评价相关要素流率、效率、功用与结构水平。.重要结果：①针对国家尺度社会系统，构建了社会系统可用能损耗网络模型，对2012年中国社会开展分截面和分网络的系统可用能利用统一核算；②针对国家尺度社会系统资源使用，辨识了我国社会能源使用的路径传导特征，解析了我国初级能源生产的需求驱动机制；③针对部门尺度社会系统，开展了我国农业部门2001-2015年时间序列可用能分析，评价了我国农业经济系统可用能利用特征及其可持续性④针对部门尺度水资源利用，从区域间投入产出分析的视角，剖析了需求驱动作用下的中国工业需水特征⑤针对区域尺度能源资源利用，系统评价多尺度能源资源驱动因素与关联模式，重点分析了区域间隐含能源的贸易传导机制⑥针对多尺度社会系统环境排放，重点开展了中国甲烷排放清单分析工作，辨识了甲烷排放的区域特征、区域间转移与减排政策。研究成果发表在Applied Energy、Ecological Indicators、Resources, Conservation & Recycling等国际刊物。.社会系统可用能利用研究不仅可以对我国社会资源代谢、环境排放等过程进行准确的描述，科学地反映系统内外的各种能量联系，进而了解系统总体以及内部的资源环境状况与经济驱动因素。研究成果从热力学视角诊断我国社会可用能利用现状、问题及其影响因素，一定程度上反映社会系统的可持续性，进而指导和优化社会系统的资源环境管理实践。