基于弹性工作制和动态停车收费耦合效应的交通需求组合管理优化

Flexible Working Arrangement (FWA), with which the commuter could flexiblely arrange their start working time, working hours and places, yields more evenly distributed travel patterns over time. However, it is difficult to realize system optimum in terms of congestion alleviation since user optimal equilibruim is always achieved with FWA. Time-dependent Parking Charges (TPC) is an efficient masure to alleviate traffic congestion by adjusting the parking fees from time to time within a day. However, with the strict working hour arrangments, the travalers attempting to avoid the late penalty will depart even earlier to save parking costs with TPC. It has limited effects on evenly distributing the traffic. Considering the aforementioned limitations of FWA and TPC in terms of congestion alleviation, this research proposes to implement FWA and TPC jointly to alleviate traffic congestion more efficiently. This research will firstly investigate the travel choice behavior under joint FWA and TPC. Then a dynamic multi-modal traffic assignment model will be estitablished to explore the traffic situations with implementing FWA and TPC. The interacting mechanism of FWA and TPC will be studied by exploring the traffic distribitions under various joint-managements, for instance TPC with different percentages of flexi-commuters (could be ranging from 0 to 100%). Be awaring of the iteracting mechanism, a bi-level problem will be established to optimize the joint strategy of FWA and TPC. Finally, the established multi-modal dynamic traffic assignment model will be applied to real networks in Shanghai, to validate the optimization methodology for joint FWA and TPC. Recommendations on the optimal joint strategy will be presented to support the decision making on the FWA planning for the government and companies and on the parking fee optimizations for the transportation managers.

弹性工作制便于通勤者灵活安排通勤时间，可以促进交通出行在方式、时间和空间上的分散，起到缓解交通拥堵的效果。但通勤个体以个人效用最大为目标，难以实现系统最优。动态停车收费虽可通过费率调整主动引导出行行为，但受传统固定上班时间的刚性约束，调节出行分布的效果有限。本研究提出弹性工作制与动态停车收费的组合管理策略，用弹性工作制的时间弹性来释放固定通勤时间所造成的刚性约束，使弹性工作制与动态停车收费发生耦合效应，实现交通出行在方式、时间和空间上的充分分散，有效地缓解交通拥堵。研究将首先解析动态停车收费管理下弹性和非弹性工作者出行行为机理，构建行为模型；其次，通过构建动态多模式交通分配模型揭示组合管理下交通状态时空演化规律，解析弹性工作制与动态停车收费的耦合机理，建立组合管理评价和优化模型；最后开展实证研究。预期成果可为政府和企业规划弹性工作制和为交通管理者制定停车收费费率，提供科学的理论依据和方法。

弹性工作制便于通勤者灵活安排通勤时间，可以促进交通出行在方式、时间和空间上的分散，起到缓解交通拥堵的效果。但通勤个体以个人效用最大为目标，难以实现系统最优。动态停车收费虽可通过费率调整主动引导出行行为，但受传统固定上班时间的刚性约束，调节出行分布的效果有限。项目提出弹性工作制与动态停车收费的组合管理策略，用弹性工作制的时间弹性来释放固定通勤时间所造成的刚性约束，使弹性工作制与动态停车收费发生耦合效应，实现交通出行在方式、时间和空间上的充分分散，有效地缓解交通拥堵。.针对弹性工作制受岗位、单位等工作性质的限制，分别构建了弹性和非弹性员工两类出行者在核心弹性工作制下的出行行为模型；利用基于瓶颈模型的解析方法和基于动态分配的仿真方法，解析模拟了不同弹性规模下弹性和非弹性员工的出行规律及分布，剖析了弹性工作制及其规模对拥堵缓解的效应。通过构建的仿真平台，模拟了多停车场差别化动态停车收费下的弹性及非弹性员工的出行规律及时空分布，构建了以路网总延误最小为目标函数和以路网均衡为下层约束的双层规划模型，描述了组合策略下停车费率调节和出行选择的博弈过程，优化了各停车场在不同弹性规模下的动态停车费率，解析了弹性工作制与动态停车收费在缓解拥堵效应上的耦合机理。在解决双层优化问题方面，针对决策变量的动态特性，设计了适用于求解高维动态费率优化的粒子群算法，其中嵌套动态交通分配算法，同时改进了同步求解出发时间和路径选择的流量分配算法。最后，依托实际路网，对模型进行了验证。.研究结果表明：1）弹性工作制促进了错峰出行，减少行程时间延误占比达40%；2）优化的停车收费费率分布与高峰流量分布相似，组合策略下交通流量分散效果显著；3）随着弹性员工比例增高，停车收费的最大值随之降低，行程延误逐渐减少。当弹性员工比例达到70%后，降低延误的效果减缓；4）实施组合策略对缓解交通拥堵的效果比单独实施一种策略更显著。项目研究成果为管理部门和企业规划弹性工作制和为交通管理者制定停车收费费率，提供了科学的理论依据和方法支撑。