城市快速路多瓶颈点阻塞判别及演化机理研究

Urban Expressway is the main backbone of the metropolitan traffic system and the bottleneck is the throat of the facilities. Frome the filed survey we can see that the interactions of the multi-bottlenecks is the critical factor for the urban expressway traffci jam. The traditional researches mostly focus on the establishing of the macroscopic traffic flow dynamics at single bottleneck and are lack of the integrated analysis from the individual to connected bottlenecks; meanwhile, few of them consider the microscopic driver behaviors and human factors inside the model expressions. The continuous data supplying and experimental tools give us a novel idea and methods for this topic. This project will begin both from the macroscopic and microscopic level. Firstly, the breakdown of the bottleneck, the congestion formation and evolvement mechanism of the connected bottlenecks will be analysis using the detected data from the macroscopic perspectives. Secondly, the controlled experiment and the holographic data collection plan will be designed, and the microscopic driver behaviors will be captured using the multi-driving simulators and vehicle naturalistic driving experiments. The impact of driver behaviors and human factors will be quantitative analysis using the three-dimensional trajectory tracking system. Finally, the macro and micro results will be combined to establish the critical simulation model of the connected expressway bottlenecks and the simulation software prototype will be programmed and some bottlenecks will be selected for case studies. The outputs of the project will systematic reveal the complex relationship among traffic congestion, the connectivity of multi-bottlenecks, traffic management and control, and driver behaviors. It is the theoretical bases and technical support for facility design, preventative measures and comprehensive improvement of the urban expressways.

快速路是大都市交通的主骨架，瓶颈点则是其咽喉。考察我国快速路堵塞现象，多瓶颈点相互作用是关键因素。而以往研究多专注于单瓶颈点交通流宏观解析模型构筑，鲜见从单瓶颈点到关联瓶颈区的整合分析,且缺乏对微观驾驶行为的内因分析。连续数据环境和实验手段的发展为本研究提供了一种全新的思路和方法。课题拟从宏观和微观两个层面入手，首先运用检测数据分析单瓶颈点失效、多瓶颈点关联阻塞及演化的宏观交通特征；然后利用"多车协作驾驶实验平台"和"实车自然驾驶系统"，设计瓶颈区驾驶行为受控实验和全息数据采集方案，获取微观驾驶行为数据，应用三维时空轨迹法解析驾驶行为及人的因素对多瓶颈点交通流阻塞演化的影响；最后整合宏、微观分析成果，构建瓶颈区临界交通流仿真模型并进行实证分析。研究成果将系统揭示快速路交通阻塞与多瓶颈点关联性、交通管控措施以及驾驶行为之间的有机关系，为快速路设计、失效预防、综合改善等提供理论基础和技术支撑。

城市快速路系统是大都市交通的主骨架，承担了城市的大量机动化出行。瓶颈点是快速路等连续流交通设施的咽喉，亦是导致快速路拥堵的直接诱因。.课题针对城市快速路的常发性瓶颈失效及阻塞演化问题，按照识别瓶颈、表征瓶颈、解析瓶颈、对策瓶颈的思路展开研究，首先利用快速路海量交通流检测数据，统计交通流基本参数特征，发现了独立瓶颈早发性失效现象及车道过反应现象等新特征，进一步分析了关联瓶颈区内多个瓶颈点失效特征及通行能力，构筑了多瓶颈点失效判别模型；然后提取大量车辆时空轨迹，从微观驾驶行为角度，解析了单瓶颈点交通流早发性失效机理；同时结合课题组自主开发的“多车协作驾驶实验平台”，进行瓶颈区域换道行为实验；构建了能精准表征瓶颈区驾驶行为的跟驰及换道模型，再现了瓶颈点阻塞形成及演化过程，同时系统提出了改善快速路瓶颈点运行效率和安全的主动优化措施，并进行了效果评估；最后针对快速路交通事故特性，研究交通流运行状态与交通事故之间的耦合关系，提出了基于风险评估的综合事故黑点识别方法以及快速路实时事故风险预测模型。研究成果系统揭示了快速路交通阻塞与多瓶颈点关联性、交通管控措施以及驾驶行为之间的有机关系，为快速路设计、失效预防、综合改善等提供了理论基础和技术支撑。.依托上述研究成果，本课题共发表（录用）论文25篇（其中SCI/SSCI论文14篇，TRB年会论文6篇，EI论文5篇），形成专著《城市快速路交通流理论及运行管理》初稿，交由科学出版社出版。研究成果同时申请发明专利7项，其中4项已授权；获软件著作权1项，培养博士/硕士研究生16名（含在读博士生）。