货币政策波动、信贷资源配置及其经济后果研究

Monetary policy is one of the most important instruments to adjust macro economic activities, used by governments around the world. Monetary policy changes are importantly macroeconomic events that all kinds of firms have to deal with. The change of monetary policy significantly affects the behaviors of firms. Based on our country-specific monetary policy and macroeconomic environment, this project determines contraction periods vs. expansion periods of China's monetary policies using interest rate tools as well as bankers' confidence index. Given this division, this project does exploratory research on the interactive relationship between macroeconomic policy and the behaviors of firms using normative research, survey research and empirical research methodologies. We (1) investigate firms and banks' reactions to the change of monetary policy and do some case studies; (2) at the micro-level, we study monetary policy credit transmission mechanism, taking ownership types of both firms and banks; (3) we study the credit allocation efficiency and its impact on investment and firm performance. The research of our project has important academic and practical implications on understanding monetary policy's micro transmission mechanism, enriching monetary policy theory, and improving credit allocation efficiency in our country.Monetary policy is one of the most important instruments to adjust macro economic activities, used by governments around the world. Monetary policy changes are importantly macroeconomic events that all kinds of firms have to deal with. The change of monetary policy significantly affects the behaviors of firms. Based on our country-specific monetary policy and macroeconomic environment, this project determines contraction periods vs. expansion periods of China's monetary policies using interest rate tools as well as bankers' confidence index. Given this division, this project does exploratory research on the interactive relationship between macroeconomic policy and the behaviors of firms using normative research, survey research and empirical research methodologies. We (1) investigate firms and banks' reactions to the change of monetary policy and do some case studies; (2) at the micro-level, we study monetary policy credit transmission mechanism, taking ownership types of both firms and banks; (3) we study the credit allocation efficiency and its impact on investment and firm performance. The research of our project has important academic and practical implications on understanding monetary policy's micro transmission mechanism, enriching monetary policy theory, and improving credit allocation efficiency and firms' financing efficiency in our country.

货币政策是各国政府调控宏观经济的主要手段之一，是微观企业面临的重要宏观经济事件，其波动将对微观企业行为产生显著影响。本课题基于我国特定的货币政策和宏观经济环境，通过央行货币政策变动设定货币政策紧缩阶段虚拟变量及利用银行家信心指数确定货币政策紧缩阶段的方式，采用规范研究、实地调研和实证研究等方法，以货币政策波动为切入点对宏观经济政策与微观企业行为之间的互动关系进行探索性研究。其核心内容包括：(1)实地调研企业和银行受货币政策波动的影响及其应对措施进行案例研究；(2)在微观层面从企业和银行的产权性质角度研究我国的货币政策信贷传导机制；(3)透过货币政策波动的视角在企业和银行两个方面检验我国银行的信贷资源配置效率及其对企业投资、业绩和银行绩效等经济后果进行研究。本课题的研究对于理解货币政策的微观传导机制、丰富货币政策理论、提高我国信贷资源配置效率和企业的融资效率具有重要的理论和实践意义。

课题组共计发表有基金标注的论文16篇，其中13篇成果归属于课题负责人，包括国际A类期刊2篇，《经济研究》论文1篇，《管理世界》论文2篇；出版学术专著一部。本课题立足我国特定的现实国情和制度背景，通过经济学和管理学的理论基础，建立了富有中国特色的宏观经济政策与微观企业行为的分析框架，研究我国货币政策、通货膨胀、经济政策不确定性对企业行为的深刻影响。本课题主要研究内容和意义如下：（1）从宏观视野研究我国宏观经济活动及其政策影响微观企业行为的传导机制，拓展了宏微观互动关系的研究文献，也深化了投资者和市场参与者对宏观经济环境与微观企业行为之间博弈关系的理解与认识；（2）基于我国特定的货币政策环境，研究货币政策波动对企业融资及其经济后果的影响，从而有助于政策监管者、投资者更为深入的了解货币政策影响微观企业行为的作用机制；（3）基于我国特定的宏观经济环境，研究通货膨胀及其预期对微观企业行为的影响及其作用机制，显性化了通货膨胀对企业行为的影响，有助于投资者与企业管理者判断通货膨胀这一重要宏观经济因素对企业经营的影响；（4）基于我国特定的政策不确定性，研究经济政策不确定性对企业行为的影响及其作用机制，有助于政策制定者、投资者判断经济政策不确定性对微观企业行为影响的经济后果。