大气污染防治的三维结构分析：驱动因素、责任分担与政策协同

One vital aspect of preventing/controlling air pollution is to understand the air pollution’s internal driving forces, to enhance regional fairness of emission abatement responsibility and to optimize policies’ synergies and effectiveness from a soft science perspective. Within a three-dimension analyzing framework, this project integrates a number of theory and approaches, such as production theory, synergetics, decomposition analysis and efficiency analysis, to construct the temporal/spatial decomposition model for the driving force behind air pollution, temporal/spatial allocation model for emission abatement responsibilities and the assessment model for policy synergies. In virtue of the framework established, this project aims to systematically analyze the nature dimension of social and economic driving forces underlying the air pollution, the measure dimension to allocate regional emission abatement share and the guarantee dimension for policy synergies. The studies above can further lead to some enhanced air pollution controlling policy measures, which is consistent with the three-dimension structure. Based on the research above, this project can theoretically enrich the policy studies framework for air pollution issue, extend the assessment approach for policy synergies and overcome the shortcomings of single temporal and single spatial decomposition for air pollution. In application, this project is able to improve the regional justice and economic efficiency in controlling air pollution, as well as promote the pertinence and synergies of policy measures.

从软科学视角把握大气污染的内在成因、强化减排责任的区域公平、提高政策措施的协同有效是大气污染防治工作的重要环节。本项目在“三维”结构分析框架下，集成生产理论、协同理论、分解分析、效率分析等多种理论和工具，构建大气污染物驱动因素的时序和空间分解模型、减排责任的时序和空间分担模型以及政策协同的评估模型，对我国大气污染社会经济发展驱动的本质维度、区域减排责任分担的手段维度和政策协同的保障维度进行系统解构和分析，进而提出符合“三维”结构特色的大气污染防治促进政策。通过上述研究，在理论上可丰富大气污染防治的政策分析思路和框架体系，拓展政策协同的评估方法，弥补大气污染物驱动因素单一时序分解和减排责任单一空间分担研究的不足；在应用上可强化大气污染防治工作的区域公平性和经济性，提高政策措施的针对性和协同性。

从社会经济学视角把握大气污染的内在成因、强化减排责任的区域公平、提高政策措施的协同有效是大气污染防治工作的重要环节。本项目集成生产理论、分解分析、效率分析等多种理论和工具，主要围绕大气污染物/二氧化碳排的放效率测度、驱动因素分解和责任分配三个方面开展了系列研究工作：（1）考虑生产技术的异质性开发了节能减排效率测度模型，实现了效率损失分解；（2）利用指数分解、结构分解和生产分解三种方法识别了主要大气污染物的社会经济动因及区域、产业贡献；（3）基于数据包络分析和计量经济等方法量化了污染/碳排放的区间转移特征及其对经济发展的影响，并模拟了多情景区域碳交易潜在效果。.上述研究工作取得的主要成果包括：（1）在Naval Research Logistics、Energy Economics等发表SCI/SSCI期刊论文65篇，其中9篇入选ESI高被引或热点论文；（2）获得教育部高等学校优秀成果奖自然科学二等奖、人文社会科学三等奖等奖励4次；（3）项目负责人入选国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才，并获国家优秀青年科学基金资助。