异质化特性下交通-能源-环境演化机制与混合CGE模型及仿真

Economics development, energy security and environmental protection are important tasks for all countries. Transportation department is bearing great pressure because it highly dependents on scarce fuel oil. The present transportation energy environment analysis and simulation pays too much attention to the quantity fit, but is powerless on the system dynamics mechanism, details description and quantity simulation of traffic patterns substitute, technology development, so it becomes an important scientific problem of traffic energy environment science that need to be resolved. This research project concerns the heterogeneous characteristic of China, analyses the traffic patterns substitution and technology evolution, explores the dynamics mechanism of traffic-energy-environment system, and takes quantity description. Then the research project tries to build transportation mode substitute model, technology evolution model, energy consumption-emissions dynamic shock response model, putting these models into improved CGE model that been refined traffic department and unified accounting data with soft link technology, using GEMPACK to explore mixed CGE model of traffic-energy-environment that based on improved CGE model. So it could provide a simulation platform with clear mechanism, distinct technical details for the transport-energy-environment simulation. What's more, it could solve the key scientific problems such as data base, quantity expression, "decoupling" scene design, provide adjustment scheme set for different situations and promote the systematization and elaboration of transportation-energy-environment simulation.

发展经济、保证能源安全与保护环境是所有国家面临的重要任务，交通由于依赖稀缺的石油燃料压力尤为巨大。现有的交通能源环境分析及仿真注重数量契合，对系统间的动力学作用机制与表达往往无能为力，同时对交通模式替代、技术演进等缺乏细节描述与量化模拟，成为交通能源环境科学需解决的重要科学问题。本项目考虑中国的异质化特性，分析交通模式替代与技术演进路径，探索交通-能源-环境间的动力学作用机制，并进行数量化表达，构建交通模式替代、技术演进、能耗-排放模型，采用软连接技术将上述模型引入经细化交通部门、统一校核数据等改进后的CGE模型，采用GEMPACK开发交通-能源-环境混合CGE模型，为交通能源环境仿真提供作用机理明确、技术细节清晰的仿真平台，解决交通能源环境仿真中演进机理、数据基础、数量表达、"脱钩"情景设计等关键科学问题，并为系统提供不同情景下的调控方案集，促进交通能源环境仿真科学的体系化与精细化

交通运输碳排放量占全球温室气体总排放的比重仅次于工业，建设低碳交通运输体系已成为中国政府应对气候变化和环境污染的主要手段，而低碳交通运输体系的建设关键是控制交通运输碳排放量、降低交通碳减排压力。现有的交通能源环境分析及仿真注重数量契合，对系统间的动力学作用机制与表达往往无能为力，同时对交通模式替代、技术演进等缺乏细节描述与量化模拟，成为交通能源环境科学需解决的重要科学问题。本项目考虑中国的异质化特性，分析交通模式替代与技术演进路径，探索交通-能源-环境间的动力学作用机制，并进行数量化表达，构建交通模式替代、技术演进、能耗-排放模型，为交通能源环境仿真提供作用机理明确、技术细节清晰的仿真平台，解决交通能源环境仿真中演进机理、数据基础、数量表达、“脱钩”情景设计等关键科学问题，并为系统提供不同情景下的调控方案集，促进交通能源环境仿真科学的体系化与精细化。