区域异质视角下我国大气污染排放绩效测度、影响因素及防控对策研究

Fossil energy-saving and atmospheric pollutant emissions reduction, which are considered as the most feasible approaches for controlling the “haze” at the current stage, can help China to reduce the losses that caused by atmospheric pollutants. In recent years, the regional and concentrated occurrence of atmospheric pollutants have drawn much attentions to the society; however, the lack of systemic research in the field of atmospheric pollutants prevention and governance has resulted insufficient theoretical basis and empirical evidence for relevant macro policy-making.This research is based upon the view of regional heterogeneity,using modified version of the Luenberger index decomposition model. The research measures the value of atmospheric pollutants emissions performance, highlights the weaknesses of atmospheric pollutants prevention and governance in the regions, and puts forward the Total Factor Productivity measure model. Further, the Total Factor Productivity is decomposed under the regulation of atmospheric environment for analyzing the promoting effect of energy-saving and emissions reduction in different regions and for examining the evolution trend of technical efficiency and technical progress in the theoretical framework of the Total Factor Productivity. The research also highlights the emphasizing points of the promotion of the technology progress on energy-saving and emission reduction in different regions and discusses the implementation of the governance path for energy-savings and emissions reduction between different regions based on China’s medium-to-long term greenhouse gases and its regional heterogeneity of the targets of atmospheric pollutants emissions reduction. This topic aims for providing a new research method as well as a theoretical basis for the technical efficiency assessment of atmospheric environmental efficiency. It also aims for providing a scientific reference for government’s policy-making in the collaborative prevention and governance of greenhouse gases and atmospheric pollutants.

化石能源节约和大气污染物减排作为治理“雾霾”最可行措施，可帮助我国减少大气污染所造成的损失。近年来，大气污染的区域式、集中式爆发引起全社会关注，而针对大气污染防控的系统性研究较少，导致相关宏观政策制定缺乏理论基础和实证依据。在区域异质视角下，本课题运用改进型的Luenberger指数分解模型，对大气污染排放绩效值进行测算，指出各地区大气污染防控的薄弱环节；提出大气环境全要素生产率测度模型，对大气环境规制下的全要素生产率进行要素分解，分析节能减排措施对不同区域的促进作用；在全要素生产率分析框架下研究技术效率和技术进步的演化趋势，强化各区域促进节能减排技术进步的侧重点；基于我国中长期温室气体和大气污染物减排目标的区域异质性，探讨各区域实现节能减排目标的治理路径。本课题有望为大气环境技术效率评价提供新的方法和理论基础，为我国政府制定温室气体和大气污染协同防控政策提供科学的参考依据。

节约能源消费与大气污染物减排作为目前最可行的治理雾霾的直接手段，可降低中国大气污染所带来的负面影响。而本研究采用Luenberger指数分解，作为大气环境全要素生产率分解分析的重要测度方法，能够从投入、产出要素角度以及技术效率、技术进步的根源角度，分别对省级区域能源消费与污染物排放静态绩效和动态进步进行全方位评价。本项目分别（1）从大气污染类型角度，重点分析各省级区域工业排放二氧化硫和交通排放氮氧化物绩效，甄别出区域“工业煤烟”和“机动车尾气”的污染类型，并针对不同污染类型提出治理策略；（2）从区域防治角度，重点分析“三区十群”所涉及省级区域化石能源、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放绩效并对其进行整体比较，在此基础上分析区域内部的防治重点，以提出联防联控的针对性治理策略；（3）从产业结构优化角度，对工业以及非工业的能源消费、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放绩效绩效进行全方位比较，厘清区域工业和非工业能源与排放全要素变化的根本动因，并对区域工业绿色发展与产业结构调整提出策略建议；（4）从能源消费节约的“源头”和污染物减排的“末端”治理角度，对国内省级区域的能源与排放绩效进行深度挖掘，重点比较一次能源、二次能源、二氧化硫和氮氧化物绩效，以突出源头和末端双重治理的防治路径；（5）从创新效率角度，考察工业绿色创新效率的动态演进特征，并用空间计量方法考察产业集聚对绿色创新影响。项目研究成果已经从上述多样化角度，厘清区域大气污染防治重点和路径，从而为不同区域治理大气污染政策制定提供科学依据；而且有助于加深对全要素生产率绩效变化的根源以及机理的理解，从而推动相关学科发展。