基于风险管控的粮食作物保险绩效研究：方法、水平与提升路径

The agricultural insurance is an irreplaceable method of spreading and transferring the agricultural risks, the innovative development of agricultural insurance has great significance in promoting the agricultural development and maintaining the rural stability. Due to a variety of reasons, many troublesome problems perplex the development of our country’s agricultural insurance in past 11 years, meanwhile, performance evaluation offering potential benefits in agricultural insurance, which inspiring us to acquire the agricultural insurance optimized path in the angle of performance evaluation. This study will comprehensively utilize the research methods of management and economics, which includes systems theory, decision science and econometrics. The study takes food crop as an example, with the core of performance evaluation, the current risk control level of agricultural insurance, try to establish a performance evaluation model to measure the achievement of the performance objectives of the three participants through designing the performance indicators of insurance coverage, insurance inclusion and risk return, as the participants of the government, peasant household and insurance institution, then analyze the factors that affect the performance, optimize the ascension path of performance level, design improvement program of crop insurance policy to meet the requirements of agricultural development. At last, the application of research results in other fields of agricultural insurance will be proposed. This project can not only enrich the theoretical knowledge of agricultural insurance, but also promote agricultural insurance transforming from “extensive” into “precise” and provide theoretical basis and practical guidance on supporting for agricultural development.

农业保险是分散和转移农业风险的重要手段，其改革创新对推进农业发展和维护农村社会稳定具有重要意义。长达11年的农业保险已走到发展与改革的十字路口，绩效评价既是现有农业保险政策的归结点也是新时期农业保险政策的出发点，基于绩效评价的农业保险路径优化非常迫切。课题综合运用系统科学、决策科学和计量方法、实验方法等管理和经济理论方法，以现阶段农业保险风险管控水平为绩效评价核心，以粮食作物保险为例，针对政府、农户和保险机构三个参与主体，分别设计保险保障水平、保险包容度和风险收益为绩效指标，构建绩效评价模型，测度各参与主体的绩效目标达成度，计量分析影响绩效水平的因素，优化绩效水平提升路径，设计满足农业发展要求的粮食作物保险政策改进方案，提出研究成果在农业保险其他领域的应用途径。项目研究在丰富农业保险理论与方法的同时，也为农业保险由“粗放”向“精准”转型、更有效发挥风险保障作用提供理论依据和实践指导。

农业保险是分散和转移农业风险的重要手段，对维持农村社会稳定和推进农业改革发展具有重要意义。2007年保费补贴政策使我国农业保险获得飞跃式发展的同时，也存在着较多矛盾和困境，亟需结合农业发展新形势进行政策改进。农业保险政策的完善和改进须以绩效评价为依据，因此，我们研究农业保险的绩效评价问题，以期为我国农业保险由“粗放”向“精准”转型、更有效地发挥风险管控作用提供理论依据和实践指导。.首先，根据对我国农业保险发展现状和作用机理的分析，构建了基于风险管控的绩效评价框架，通过测度农业保险的实际值（效果）和三个参与主体的需求值（功效）之间的差距进行绩效评价，进而在研究影响绩效水平因素的基础上，设计农业保险绩效提升的路径。其次，我们综合运用模拟仿真、运筹优化、经济计量、统计分析等方法，从三个主体维度对我国农业保险进行了绩效评价，并对影响绩效水平的主要因素进行了实证研究。最后，利用熵权TOPSIS法将政府、农户和保险机构的绩效评价结果进行综合得到我国各省农业保险的综合绩效水平，结果显示，我国农业保险的综合绩效水平较低，全国总体为50.35%，且存在明显的省域差异，保费补贴资金的规模和使用效率、农户的基本特征、农业风险的特殊性尤其是空间相关性是影响农业保险绩效水平的关键因素。在绩效评价的基础上，结合我国种植业的发展形势，利用运筹模型、仿真模拟等方法，从保费补贴方案、承保方案以及种植业灾害损失估计方法等三个方面设计了农业保险的绩效提升路径和具体优化方案，并对优化效果进行了仿真模拟，结果显示，保费补贴方案的优化能使我国农业保险政府维度的绩效水平提高5.12%，使农户维度的绩效水平提高3.67%；承保方案的优化能使保险机构维度的绩效水平提高13.58%；两种方案同时优化能使我国农业保险的综合绩效水平提高4.15%，并且优化方案满足帕累托改进原则；非参数加权局部线性方法能够有效提高种植业灾害损失风险估计的精确性。