场地生命周期影响评价（LCIA）与常规风险管控手段耦合方法研究

Problems of contaminated sites are becoming prominent over the world. With the fact that contaminated sites remediation methods in China are primarily ex-situ remediation with high energy consumption and adverse effects to the environment, sustainable management strategies are highly deficient. The LCA-based researches are hot topics at present, i.e. the selection of remediation alternatives for contaminated sites, the impact assessment on remedial activities and the standard analyses on the impacts of remediation technologies, being used to assess comprehensive effect of the risk-based controls. However, problems exist during LCIA, the most important phase of LCA, such as lack of unified assessment standards, generalized assessing models and high uncertainties of assessment results. With the assistance of statistical data, on-site tracking investigations, visiting and interviews, questionnaire surveys and monitoring, the coupling model based on regular risk management approaches, such as the pollution dispersion and transportation, risk assessment and site remediation scenario simulations, combining with site remediation LCIA is attempted to be established. The sensitivities of key factors and parameters of the LCIA coupling model’s primary and secondary impacts are evaluated using Fourier amplitude sensitivity test. The approach using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Method to quantify the uncertainties of LCIA results is proposed. A Cr contaminated site which is currently in the progress of pilot remediation, is selected as an example applied with the LCA method. The research is supposed to contribute practically and methodologically to the quantitative analysis on environment and health impacts by the remediation activities, and the dissemination of sustainable remediation.

当前污染场地问题凸显，而我国场地修复以高能耗、环境负面影响大的异位修复为主，缺乏场地修复可持续管理研究。近年来生命周期评估（LCA）方法逐渐用于场地修复方案优选、修复活动影响评估等,以更加全面地评估污染场地风险管控的综合效用。但场地LCA的关键环节生命周期影响评价（LCIA）仍存在评估方法缺少统一标准、模型过于一般化、结果不确定性大等问题。本项目综合使用场地修复现场勘察监测、数值模拟、问卷调查、统计分析等手段，尝试构建纳入当前场地管控中常用的污染运移、风险评估和场地修复情景模拟等常规措施的耦合LCIA模型，并采用傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验扩展法进行模型关键因子识别及参数敏感性分析，采用马尔科夫链-蒙特卡洛模拟法进行LCIA结果不确定性分析。选择国内正在进行修复中试的典型铬污染场地开展LCIA耦合模型实证研究，期望为定量分析污染场地修复措施的环境影响，推广可持续场地风险管控提供科学依据与方法支撑。

本研究针对污染场地修复生命周期评价方法（LCA）开展了研究综述，对全国铬污染场地概况和分布进行了资料分析和汇总，选取其中某典型铬污染场地进行进一步资料收集，开展修复工程LCA研究，构建典型铬污染场地的生命周期评价清单，引入基于传统健康风险评估（RA）的伤残寿命调整年（DALY）评估方法，用于评价不开展修复情景（MNA）和采用不同类型修复技术情景的一次健康毒性，采用基于ReCiPe环境影响评价模型的LCA方法计算二次环境影响，并将不同情景下的一次和二次环境影响进行综合分析，开展不确定性和敏感性分析。.2010年国家开展铬盐综合整治以来，我国遗留的典型铬污染场地约有60余块，包括铬盐生产企业污染场地和铬渣堆场，其中铬盐企业污染场地包括约50块关停破产铬盐企业，仍在运行的铬盐企业10余家，主要分布在河南、河北、江苏、青海、甘肃等地。铬污染场地具有污染重、潜在风险高、污染土壤和地下水一般范围较大、治理修复技术单一且以能耗物耗高的异位修复为主等特点，是我国面临的一类典型污染场地。目前尚没有专门针对铬污染场地的生命周期评估研究。当前我国污染场地修复领域处于初期阶段，开展铬污染场地修复生命周期研究，对于推进我国铬污染场地治理修复技术和工程管理进步，控制和降低修复过程产生的二次环境污染，促进我国污染场地绿色可持续修复管理具有重要科学和现实意义。