农业产业化对农户生计的影响及农户响应研究

Under the framework of Participatory development and Sustainable livelihoods analysis theory, this project strives for a optimized way of agricultural industrialization to promote sustainable development for farmers at micro level through life changes during the process of agricultural industrialization as well as responses while implementation based on a large number of survey datas from three different counties and districts in Henan Province . First of all, according to literature review and pre-survey targets, by establishing sustainable livelihood indicators system which is appropriate for evaluating effects brought by agricultural industrialization, comparative analysis shall be carried out among livelihood capital , means of livelihood and livelihood risks during process of agricultural industrialization by indices such as comprehensive livelihood capacity , diversified means of livelihood ,vulnerability and so on from questionnaire survey samples to explore influence mechanism which agricultural industrialization effecting on the sustainable livelihood of farmers . Secondly, adopting Principle component analysis (PCA) method it attempts to find out the key factors which shall influence the farmers to participate in agricultural industrialization through multiple angles both internal and external and then shall identify the impact caused by different factors which playing role on farmer’s different behaviors by using Multinomial Logistic regression model; furthermore, through semi-open questionnaire survey which obtains farmers’ attitude and degree of satisfaction on management and operation of agricultural industrialization, response mechanism of agricultural industrialization shall be explored for the demand of farmers. Finally, optimized suggestions shall be proposed based on analysis result during agricultural industrialization process.

本项目以河南省三县区农业产业化为样本，在参与式发展和可持续生计分析理论框架下，围绕农业产业化进程中农户生计变化以及实施过程中农户响应两方面进行研究，力求在微观层面探讨促进农户可持续发展的农业产业化优化路径。首先，根据文献研读及预调研结果，建立适用于评价农业产业化实施效果的农户可持续生计指标体系，利用大样本的问卷调查，通过生计综合能力指数、生计策略多样化指数和脆弱性指数等指标，对农业产业化进程中农户的生计资本、生计策略与生计风险进行对比分析，以探索农业产业化对农户可持续生计的影响机制；其次，采用主成分分析法选取影响农户参与农业产业化的内外部因素，应用多元Logic回归分析，检验各因素对农户行为选择的影响；再次，通过半开放式问卷调查，获取农户对农业产业化经营组织的满意度和需求，以探索农户对农业产业化的响应机制；最后，针对分析结果对农业产业化经营的优化提出对策建议。

我国农民主要分布于经济发展较为滞后的中西部地区，这些地区发展农业产业化更多了一重意义，要将提高农户对抗脆弱性外部环境实现可持续发展作为农业产业化实施的重要目的。项目研究将关注视线投向农业产业化发展中农户生计问题的研究，主要探讨农业产业化（不同发展程度、不同模式）对农户生计水平的影响、农户对农业产业化的响应以及农户对农业产业化经营组织的满意度与需求等。. 研究发现：（1）农业产业化的实施对提高农户可持续生计资本的作用力还是比较显著的，尤其表现在人力资本中受教育水平的提升、物质资本中住房情况的改善以及金融资本中现金收入的提高几个方面。随着产业化链条的延伸，农户对抗生计风险的能力进一步提高，农户生计策略的选择更加主动和多样化。产业化发展在降低农户生活风险方面已经初见成效，但当前农业经营中外部环境的不完善，使得农户生产经营方面遇到的风险依然很大。（2）对比不同经营模式下农户生计发现，由于产业化组织发育不成熟，当前合作社、企业等较为高级的产业化经营模式并未能显著地提升农户的生计水平。农业产业化经营组织并未改变农户生产经营中关键性资源缺乏的困境，外部保障机制不健全，亲缘地缘互助网络依旧是当前农村居民最为重要的风险应对策略。（3）农户参与农业产业化行为意愿与其所拥有的人力资本、自然资本有显著的关系，并受到农户风险态度、所处的地理位置、对产业产业化的认知程度以及满意度等因素的影响，除了人力资本以外，其余5项都对农户选择参与农业产业化的行为起到正向的促进作用。（4）农户对产业化经营组织的满意度普遍不高，提高收入、利益分配机制、收购价格、履约情况、货款支付及时性、继续合作的意愿6个指标是影响农户满意度的关键因素。农户对农业产业化经营组织的需求主要表现在：希望由内生性组织作为发起人、能够享受直接的生产销售便利、能够更加专业地提供生产销售指导、能够合理分配机制激励农户持续参与等方面。