解封与疫苗优化接种及COVID-19二次暴发风险的模型分析

COVID-19 is still thriving in the world. With the use of the vaccine, the contradiction between exit strategy and vaccine coverage rate becomes increasingly obviously, which brings great challenges to preventing and controlling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 and other complicated epidemics induced by other factors. The consciousness of people's self-protection will be changed by the vaccination, which may increase the risk of infection and transmission. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and research value to design optimizing vaccination and exit strategy to avoid repeated outbreak of the epidemic. The aim of this project was to study the dynamic relationships among exit strategy, optimizing vaccination and the second outbreak risk of COVID-19. Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19, we will construct the COVID-19 model with exit strategy and vaccination, and develop the corresponding threshold theory and numerical analysis techniques to systematically analyze the model. Take the control reproduction number and epidemic scale as indexes, combining with the actual data and statistical methods, we carry out the parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis, investigate the dynamic relationship among exit strategy, vaccination coverage rate, vaccine protection rate and the repeated outbreaks of the COVID-19, evaluate the timeliness and effectiveness of single measure and comprehensive measures for the prevention and control of COVID-19. To minimize the number of infected persons, we design an optimizing vaccination and exit strategy, and take into account the virus mutation and other important factors, so as to provide an important decision-making basis for the normal prevention and control of COVID-19.

新冠病毒仍在全球肆虐，随着疫苗投入使用，解封策略与疫苗覆盖率之间的矛盾日渐凸现，使得对新冠疫情二次暴发及其它因素诱发的复杂疫情的防控带来巨大挑战。疫苗接种必将改变人们的自我保护意识，进而增加感染和传播风险，因此如何设计优化的疫苗接种和解封策略、避免疫情反复暴发具有重要的现实意义和研究价值。本项目旨在研究解封与疫苗优化接种及新冠二次暴发风险之间的动态关系。以新冠传播机制为出发点，构建耦合解封和接种策略的新冠疫情模型，并发展相应的阈值理论和数值分析技巧对模型进行系统分析；以控制再生数和流行规模为指标，结合实际数据和统计方法，进行模型参数估计和敏感性分析，研究解封力度、接种覆盖率、疫苗保护率和新冠疫情反复暴发的动态关系，评估单一措施和综合措施对新冠疫情防控的时效性和有效性；以感染人数最小为目标，设计优化的疫苗接种与解封方案，同时考虑病毒的变异等重要因素，为新冠疫情的常态化防控提供重要的决策依据。

COVID-19 是由2019年新型冠状病毒感染引起的一种急性感染性肺炎，目前仍在全球肆虐。随着疫苗投入使用，解封策略与疫苗覆盖率之间的矛盾日渐凸现，使得对新冠疫情二次暴发及其它因素诱发的复杂疫情的防控带来巨大挑战。借助传染病动力学模型及多源数据，构建了几类COVID-19传播动力学模型，以控制再生数和流行规模为指标，结合实际数据和统计方法，进行模型参数估计和敏感性分析等，研究解封力度、疫苗接种、免疫消退、居家隔离及集中隔离和新冠疫情暴发的动态关系，设计优化疫苗接种与解封方案，评估加强针接种增强群体免疫以避免疫情复发的重要性，揭示我国新冠疫情复发的关键风险因子，为国家推广加强针接种提供了理论保障。通过本项目的研究，在一定程度上为我国的疫情防控姿态调整提供了理论支撑和定量依据。本项目按照既定目标完成了一系列疫苗接种、封控力度及优化控制相关的COVID-19传播模型的建模及分析研究，已发表多篇学术论文，做国内报告和国际报告多次。