旅游城镇化空间演化模式与系统优化调控模拟研究

Tourism urbanization, as an important component of the new-type urbanization strategies, is affecting and reshaping the urbanization processes in many regions in China. However, the spatial evolution pattern and driving mechanism of the complicated system evolution of this new-type urbanization mode are still unclear. Integrating multidisciplinary theories and methods, such as GIS spatial analysis and multi-agent analysis, this project focuses on the changes in the man-earth relationship, using four typical tourist towns as examples to resolve the following questions. First of all, we attempt to reveal the spatial evolution mode of tourist towns over the past 30 years, through analyzing the changing processes of their explicit and implicit forms. Then we explore the driving mechanism of the systematic spatial evolution during tourism urbanization process, by studying the effects of spatial and non-spatial factors and the interaction between them. At last, via analyzing the decision-making processes of multiple stakeholders inducing the government, enterprises and community residents, we will build a tourist town land use model based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS), which will be used to forecast the spatial evolution trends and propose adjustment and optimization strategies to achieve the sustainable utilization of land resources. This project can offer a research paradigm for studies on tourism urbanization from the spatial perspective, enrich the new-type tourism urbanization theories, and provide a scientific basis for the spatial optimization of tourist towns. Results of this study are expected to be of great theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development of tourism urbanization.

旅游城镇化作为国家新型城镇化战略重要组成部分，正影响重塑着许多地区的城镇化进程。但就这种新型城镇化模式而言，对其空间演化模式、演化过程复杂性和系统空间动力机制等问题尚不清晰。本研究以“人-地”系统关系演变为逻辑起点，以4个不同类型的典型旅游城镇为案例区，以GIS空间分析和多主体决策分析为基础，采用多学科理论和方法进行综合集成。通过对过去30年，旅游城镇“显性形态”和“隐性形态”空间演化过程，揭示其空间演化模式和规律性特征；通过研究“空间”和“非空间”动力要素影响和相互作用，揭示其演化的空间系统动力机制；通过研究旅游城镇空间演化中政府、企业和社区的微观决策行为关系，构建元胞自动机（CA）-多智能体系统（MAS）旅游城镇土地利用空间演化模型，预测其发展趋势，提出系统优化调控路径。研究将有助于拓展旅游地理学研究领域，丰富新型城镇化理论体系，同时也可为旅游城镇化有序推进和健康发展提供科学依据。

旅游城镇化是城镇化进程中重要的组成部分。本研究以“人-地”系统关系演变为逻辑起点，以4个不同类型的典型旅游城镇为案例区，以GIS空间分析和多主体决策分析为基础，采用多学科理论和方法进行综合集成。通过对过去30年，旅游城镇化的空间演化过程，揭示了其空间演化模式和规律性特征；分析了过程中的动力要素影响和相互作用，揭示了其演化的空间系统动力机制；通过研究旅游城镇空间演化中政府、企业和社区的微观决策行为关系，构建了多智能体系统（MAS）旅游城镇土地利用空间演化模型，预测其发展趋势，提出了系统优化调控路径。研究收集了大量一手调研数据，系统揭示了不同类型旅游城镇化空间演化模式和系统动力机制问题，提出了旅游城镇化空间过程系统优化调控的建议，为旅游城镇化有序推进和可持续发展提供了一定科学依据。项目发表学术论文20篇，其中5篇发表在被 SCI 或者 SSCI 收录刊物上。总体完成了目标。