旅游导向型城镇化对生态系统服务权衡影响的系统模拟

China is in a period of rapid urbanization, and the next thirty or forty years will still be an important period of rapid urbanization in China. Urbanization of tourism is a phenomenon that appears only when the social and economic development reaches a certain level, and it will become one of the important ways of urbanization in China in the future. How to make tourism urbanization a truly environment-friendly urbanization road is an important issue in the development of urbanization in China. This project chooses Wuyishan City as the research area. The data used in this project include remote sensing data, questionnaire survey data, socio-economic data and field measured data, etc. The methods adopted in this project include model simulation, spatial analysis, system dynamic analysis, grounding theory, etc. This project summarizes the characteristics of tourism urbanization and analyses the dynamic changes of landscape pattern in the process of tourism urbanization. According to the characteristics of tourism urbanization, this paper reveals the spatial and temporal characteristics of three ecosystem services, namely, climate regulation, water purification, leisure and tourism services, and their trade-offs in the process of tourism urbanization. Combining the characteristics of tourism urbanization, this paper reveals the temporal and spatial changes of three ecosystem services in the process of tourism urbanization, namely, climate regulation services, water purification services, leisure and tourism services, and also reveals the temporal and spatial changes of trade-offs among the three ecosystem services. On the basis of the previous research, a system simulation model of the impact of tourism urbanization on the trade-offs of ecosystem services is built. The research results can provide support for the comprehensive regulation and management of sustainable economic and environmental development of tourism towns in China. At the same time, it is of great scientific significance to deeply understand the interaction coupling effect between urbanization and ecological environment, and to enrich the theory and application of tourism ecology and earth system science.

旅游导向型城镇化将会成为未来我国城镇化的重要途径之一，如何让旅游导向型城镇化成为真正意义上的环境友好型城镇化道路是我国城镇化发展面临的重要课题。本项目选择武夷山市作为研究区域，在遥感、问卷调查、社会经济及野外实测等数据的支持下，应用模型模拟、空间分析、系统动态分析、扎根理论等方法，总结分析旅游导向型城镇化的特点，刻画旅游导向型城镇化进程中的景观动态变化，并在此基础上针对旅游导向型城镇化的特点，揭示旅游导向型城镇化进程中气候调节、水质净化、休闲与旅游服务3项生态系统服务价值量、空间结构及其权衡关系的时空变化特征，辨析旅游导向型城镇化对3项生态系统服务之间权衡关系产生影响的原因，构建旅游导向型城镇化对生态系统服务权衡关系影响的系统模拟模型。研究结果可以为我国旅游导向型城镇的综合调控管理和促进区域经济与环境可持续发展提供决策依据，对丰富旅游生态学的学科理论与应用具有重要科学意义。

如何让旅游导向型城镇化成为真正意义上的环境友好型城镇化道路是我国城镇化发展面临的重要课题。本项目以武夷山市作为典型旅游导向型城市，总结分析了旅游导向型城镇化的发展特征，识别了旅游导向型城镇化过程中生态系统服务的时空变化特征，在旅游导向型城镇化对生态系统服务权衡关系影响原因分析的基础上构建了旅游导向型城镇化对生态系统服务权衡关系影响的系统模型。主要研究结果如下：（1）2000-2010年间武夷山市旅游城镇化进程发展迅速，陆地表层人类活动由3.79%上升至5.05%，2010-2020年城镇化进程放缓，2020年陆地表层人类活动仅为5.33%。空间分异明显，中部与南部地区城镇化发展较快。（2）2000—2010年武夷山市景观核心区面积显著减少，占自然生境的比例由2000年的76.91%，降低到2010年的56.62%，2020年基本保持稳定。旅游产业发展与城市景观格局演变之间，以城市发展为中介，存在着显著的双向作用过程。（3）旅游城镇化格局与生态系统服务之间呈现显著的时空关联特征。2000—2020年，碳存储（气候调节）服务呈下降趋势，主城区衰减变化量更为显著，总计减少2.00×10^6t；土壤保持（水质净化）服务价值总量呈上升趋势，由2000年的26.38×10^6t上升至2020年的45.26×10^6t；旅游与休闲服务总体上呈先上升后逐渐平稳的趋势，由2000年的47.45×10^6t上升至2010年的63.53×10^6t，2020年为65.46×10^6t。（4）2000-2020年，武夷山市3种生态系统服务之间均呈现协同关系，且协同关系由弱变强。旅游和经济因素是影响武夷山市生态系统服务权衡与协同的关键因素。（5）构建了系统动力学因果反馈回路，对武夷山市旅游导向型城镇化对生态系统服务的影响进行了系统模拟。项目研究成果一方面丰富了旅游生态学的学科理论，另一方面可以为我国旅游导向型城镇的综合调控管理提供决策依据。