世界甘蔗燃料乙醇产业发展对中国糖业市场的影响

All previous historical crude oil price spikes have profound effects on world sugar economy. Recently, the emerging bio-energy market represented by the sugarcane based ethanol industry are not only strengthening the energy property of sugar cane which is traditionally used for crushing sugar, but also increasing the property of financial derivative instrument. Hence, this industrial pattern makes the sugar industry have sufficiently close to the energy sectors and overall macroeconomic situation, which cause the sensitive sugar market is more volatile. At the same time, the drastic developing food industry in China is leading to a large growth in sugar consumption. However, the sugar production expansion is governed by many constrains in sugar production link, which makes the prospects of Chinese sugar industry look bleak. In fact, China increasingly imports sugar from world market in recent years, and is going toward the world's leading sugar importer. The objectives of this study are to examine the economic linkages between sugar market and energy market through identifying the energy character and financial derivates character in sugar, to verify whether the sugar ethanol industry is the reason that raises the volatility in sugar market, to examine the price transmission to China's sugar market, and to investigate the impacts of world sugar ethanol industry on the sugar market of China. Therefore, firstly, we not only examine the price linkage levels among sugar market, crude oil market and ethanol market, but also the price iterations effects among markets caused by stochastic impacts; secondly, we estimate the sugar price sensitivity in China to world sugar market volatility; thirdly, we build a partial equilibrium model for China sugar market to investigate the impacts of world sugarcane ethanol industry development on China's sugar economy; and finally package solutions to lessen the effects caused by sugarcane ethanol industry are designed.

世界原油市场历次动荡都深刻影响了世界糖业经济。近年来，以甘蔗燃料乙醇为代表的生物能源产业兴起不但强化了甘蔗这种传统糖料的能源属性，而且增加了食糖的金融工具属性。糖业与能源及整体宏观经济形势之间的联系更加密切。目前，食品工业推动着中国食糖消费快速增长。然而，糖料环节诸多制约因素使得国内食糖生产发展的前景黯淡。事实上，近几年中国食糖进口迅速增长，即将成为世界最大的食糖进口国。本项目的目标是，研究食糖市场与能源市场之间的经济联系，识别食糖的能源和金融工具属性；验证燃料乙醇产业发展是否加剧了食糖市场的波动；这种波动在多大程度上会传递到并影响中国糖业市场参与者。为此，本项目拟研究食糖、甘蔗燃料乙醇和原油市场的价格联系水平；检验市场波动在三个市场间的迭代效应；探究中国食糖价格对国际糖业市场波动的敏感度；建立中国糖业经济局部均衡模型，识别巴西甘蔗燃料乙醇产业发展对中国糖业部门的经济影响，并提出解决方案。

本项目旨在甘蔗能源化的背景下，将中国糖业经济的研究视角拓展到能源维度，系统地分析世界甘蔗燃料乙醇产业发展对中国食糖市场的影响，并提出相应的解决方案和政策建议。. 基于大规模调查研究和全面文献综述，项目组从国际原油市场、甘蔗燃料乙醇市场与食糖市场之间的关系着手，以价格为研究切入点，采用向量误差修正模型（VECM）和基于两区制的阈值向量误差修正模型（TVECM），实证分析了石油、甘蔗燃料乙醇和食糖价格之间的动态传导关系。同时课题组还采用了阈值协整检验方法，来验证国际甘蔗燃料乙醇价格与食糖价格之间是否存在非线性协整关系。. 借助结构向量自回归模型（SVAR），课题组探究了国际食糖市场价格波动对中国食糖价格的冲击传导机制，并系统地构建了中国食糖市场局部均衡研究框架，以预测和分析未来甘蔗燃料乙醇产业发展将对中国食糖生产、需求、进口、出口以及价格等方面产生的可能影响，以期能够为中国食糖产业发展战略的优化以及中国政府相关政策的制定提供参考。此外，课题组还对环境规制政策的实施与制糖企业技术效率之间的关系进行了初步研究。