长期经济增长可持续性条件及路径稳定性研究

Now the world’s economic growth is lack of power. No matter the developed economies or the newly-emerging economies, they are all lack of the endogenous power to keep the economy growing along a steady path. This challenges the main-stream economic growth theory. Is the balanced growth path in the endogenous growth stage steady, unique and sustainable? The traditional theory can’t answer these questions well. This project establishes a unified growth model including agricultural sector, industrial sector and technical knowledge sector, and divides the development of the economy in modern and contemporary times into three stages: 1) the transformation stage of agricultural economy to original industralization; 2) the transformation stage of original industralization to post industralization; 3) the transformation stage of post industralization to endogenous growth. The existing studies focus on the first and second stages, and fewer studies involve the third stage. This project plans to study the transformation mechanisms in different stages, and particularly focuses on the third stage. Our research focus on the followings: the empirical rules of economic development in different countries, the endogenous transformation mechanisms in different stages, the stability and sustainable conditions in balanced growth paths, the main problems in our present economy and the best strategy and suggestions on it. The research group has achieved some success in this subject. We will study deeply and find the systematic and reliable theory to serve for the healthy development of our economy.

当前世界经济的增长动力不足。发达经济和新兴经济都缺乏维持经济持续保持在稳定增长轨道的内在实力。主流经济增长理论受到挑战：内生增长阶段的均衡路径是否是稳定、唯一、可持续的？已有研究对此回答不够。课题建立包含农、工、知识技术三部门的一致增长模型，将现代经济发展分为三个阶段：1）农业经济向初始工业化经济转化的阶段；2）初始工业化向后工业化转化的阶段；3）后工业化向内生增长发展的阶段。现有的研究对一、二阶段讨论较多，极少涉及第三阶段。本课题研究各阶段一致增长机制，以第三阶段为重点。核心研究内容包括：各国经济发展经验性规律；各阶段转化一致性、内生性机制理论；内生增长阶段均衡路径的稳定性、可持续性条件；我国现阶段增长中主要问题、最优战略和关键措施等。课题组前期已有充分的研究基础，将继续深入研究，探索可靠的理论以服务于国家经济的长期健康发展。

当前世界经济总体陷入增长动力持续衰落的局面。传统增长理论失于给出恰当解释和指导。项目组从长视野对近代工业革命进程进行观察，透析东西方主流经济体从“大分流”到“大合流”过程，研究英美式长周期律特征及其内在规律，总结发现西方发达经济工业化发展过程中存在“倒V型”一般性规律。即工业化过程的前期呈现繁荣上升的主题趋势特征，而到达后工业化阶段则城下增长率逐渐下降的特征。从国际层面长期观察来看，这种过程在国家之间存在轮动特征。传统的增长理论难以解释这些现象。从产业发展周期的角度进行深入分析获得不同发现。项目组提出“有限需求”假设新概念，能够解释工业化发展过程中产业的周期特征，产业轮动特征，以及国家层面的“倒V型”特征，能够解释周期的内生性机制，以及长期内生可持续性难题的解新态和潜在不稳定性问题。.在此基础上针对传统增长理论存在的问题提出四个发展方向并进行简单讨论：（1）长周期观察：文化、人口、制度与一致增长思想；（2）长期增长可持续性；（3）周期波动与增长；（4）有限需求与增长。基于这些方面的讨论给出英美长周期律形成内在机制的一种解释，并结合这些机制提出我国规避英美式长周期律的一些建议。