生物多样性对媒介传染病传播影响的建模分析与研究

The vector-borne diseases have long threatened the human health. Epidemiologists have arrived at a consensus that the biodiversity may affect the transmission dynamics of the vector borne diseases. Therefore, to investigate the impact of biodiversity on the transmission of vector-borne diseases is one of the important subjects in the current research on epidemiology. In this project, we will first formulate the dynamical nested models which links the ecology and epidemiology based on the transmission mechanism of specific vector borne diseases, such as malaria, and the ecological settings of the vectors and the hosts. Then we will analyze the local and global dynamics of the epidemic models by using the theory of differential equations and dynamical systems and numerical simulations; The purpose of the project is to investigate the causal relationships between ecological factors, such as ecosystem structure, biodiversity loss, and the changes in transmission dynamics, severity and the incidence of the vector borne diseases, to clarify the dilution and amplification ecological factors, respectively, and to reveal the interrelationship among the pathogens, the hosts and the environment of the vector borne diseases. We are also interested in the impact of the spread of the vector borne disease on biodiversity and ecosystem structure. The project will enable us to gain an insight into the interrelationship between ecosystem and the vector borne diseases from the ecological perspective, which can potentially help us to control the emergence and transmission of these diseases, and to provide important basis and guide for the government to make reasonable policies on public health and ecological and environmental conservation.

媒介传染病长期威胁着人类的健康，而生物多样性影响媒介传染病传播已成为传染病学家的重要共识，因此研究生物多样性对媒介传染病传播的影响是当前传染病学研究的重要课题之一。本项目根据疟疾等典型媒介传染病的传播机理，结合相关媒介和宿主生态学背景，建立生态学和传染病学相结合的生物动力学嵌套模型；利用微分方程、动力系统和数值仿真分析模型局部和整体复杂动力学行为；研究生态系统结构和生物多样性变化等生态学因素与媒介传染病传播动力学性态变化、疾病发生率和严重性之间的因果关系；确定影响媒介传染病爆发和传播的稀释和放大效应的生态学因素；揭示病原体-宿主-环境及媒介传染病的发生机制。本项目还探究媒介传染病的传播对生物多样性、生态系统结构的影响。本项目的研究有助于人们从生态学视角理解生态系统和媒介传染病之间的作用机理，有助于控制媒介传染病的爆发和传播，为政府部门制定合理的生态环境保护和公共安全政策提供理论依据。

本世纪初连续爆发的传染病严重威胁着人类的健康，因此理解传染病的传播规律和流行趋势是当前传染病动力学研究最重要的课题之一，尤其在新冠肺炎爆发的今天来说其重要性显得更加突出，而种群所处的生态系统无疑是影响传染病传播和爆发的重要因素。本项目就是考虑传染病所处的生态学因素而建立具有生态学因素的传染病模型，研究了相关的生态学因素对于传染病传播和控制的影响。一方面，本项目根据具体传染病的实际背景并考虑相关的生态学因素建立了几类具有生态因素的传染病模型，利用再生数的计算理论确定了传染病是否流行的基本再生数和相关控制再生数，进一步利用微分方程、算子半群和动力学系统的相关理论给出了一系列高维模型动力学性态较为完整的分类，在探讨高维模型的局部和全局动力学性态的数学方法上取得了一定的进展；另一方面本项目在模型构建和分析的基础上，开展了传染病传播机理的研究，探索了传染病爆发和流行的原因和关键因素，分析了相关因素对于传染病模型动力学性态的影响，从而研究了各种生态学因素分别对传染病传播和爆发的影响；同时本项目还建立模型研究了人体内细胞的多样性对于HIV病毒感染的影响，分析了靶细胞类型与状态和体内环境的相关因素对HIV感染动力学的影响；除此之外，本项目还研究了环境噪音对于传染病传播的影响，建立了具有环境噪音的传染病随机模型，研究了随机传染病模型的动力学性态，并用数值分析的技术研究了环境因素对于传染病传播和爆发的影响。本项目的研究有助于人们从生态学视角理解生态系统和传染病之间的作用机理，有助于控制传染病的爆发和传播，为政府部门制定合理的生态环境保护和公共安全政策提供理论依据。