多民族欠发达地区传染病传播动力学特征分析与建模

In the multi-ethnic underdevelopment regions,like West of China, because of the difference of religious belief,ethnic customs and mode of production, the contacts and relationships are also different. This is the reason why the epidemic characteristics of this regions are different from the others.Set in the regions of northwest of china where muti-ethnic mixed inhabite together and the economy is undeveloped,this project will probes the major approaches and the epidemic characteristics of multi-ethnic large and mid-sized cites, small and mid-sized cities of autonomous region and minority agricultural and pastoral areas respectively. And the epidemic thresholds and time characteristics of above three regions to be defined.The impacts of religious belief, mode of production and development level of economy on the process of epidemic spreading would be investigated systematically.The epidemical model with the characteristic of multi-ethnic, muti-belief and unerdeveloped regions would be established. Through making all kinds of experiments of feasible immunization strategies, the proposed model would be further verified and analysised. Finally, a set of schemes of fast feasible economical immunization strategies with strong pertinence would be explored. And the research results would become the decision support and the theoretical basis for the working of immunization of the muti-ethnic underdeveloped regions, for example, the northwest of China.

在多民族欠发达的我国西部地区，由于人们的宗教信仰、民族习惯以及生活生产方式等的不同，人们之间的交往与联系也明显不同，这使得传染病在该地区的传播呈现出一定的地域特点。本项目将以多民族、经济欠发达的西北地区为背景，以传染病在该地区的传播历史数据为依据，分别探寻传染病在多民族混居的大中城市、少数民族自治的中小城市以及少数民族农牧区的主要传播途径和传播特征；界定在以上三种地域的传染病传播阈值及时间特性；深入研究宗教信仰、生产方式以及经济发展程度对传染病的传播过程的影响。创建具有多民族、多信仰、经济欠发达地域特色的传染病传播模型；设计出相应的数字模拟实验，开展各种可行的免疫策略模拟实验，结合该地区传染病传播和防治的实际数据，对模型进行进一步地验证与分析，探索出一些针对性强，成本相对低廉，快速有效且现实可行的免疫策略，为我国西北地区等多民族、欠发达地区传染病的免疫工作提供决策支持和理论依据。

本项目以多民族、经济欠发达的西北地区为背景，以传染病在该地区的传播历史数据为依据，分别探寻了传染病在多民族混居的大中城市、少数民族自治的中小城市以及少数民族农牧区的主要传播途径和传播特征。创建了多个不同的传染病传播模型；设计出了相应的数字模拟实验，开展了各种可行的免疫策略模拟实验，结合该地区传染病传播和防治的实际数据，对模型进行进一步地验证与分析，探索出一些针对性强，成本相对低廉，快速有效且现实可行的免疫策略，为我国西北地区等多民族、欠发达地区传染病的免疫工作提供了决策支持和理论依据。