“差异-协同”视角下大气污染区域治理的政策效果、演化稳定性及其保障机制研究

The closing year of the first phase of “Action plan for the prevention and control of air pollution”, was also the year of the expansion of the results of synergistic governance of fog and haze in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region. Therefore, the urgent problem to solve the current air pollution collaborative governance includes: how to accurately measure the effect of the implementation of the policy of air pollution synergistic governance, how to find out the existing problems in the synergistic governance, and how to promote the progress of the coordinated control of air pollution. Taking “2 + 26” cities coordinated by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission corridor as the research object, the two-stage Difference-In-Difference model, evolutionary game theory, grid management theory and other theoretical methods are used to explore the urgent problem on air pollution collaborative governance. The theoretical and empirical analysis are utilized to explore the stability mode and safeguard mechanism of the coalition of regional collaborative governance in air pollution in China. Firstly, a quantitative study on air pollution control policy in different regions is carried out under the perspective of “difference-synergy”. Secondly, the implication effect of cooperative governance policy of air pollution is evaluated. Thirdly, the Potter effect on cooperative governance policy of air pollution is analyzed. Further, the formation of regional cooperative governance of air pollution and its stability is explored from the perspective of heterogeneity. Finally, government-led multi-agent stratified grid multi-directional air pollution control model and its safeguard mechanism are designed based on the above results. This project is intended to provide an operable and effective policy and scientific suggestion for the coordinated control of air pollution in China.

“大气十条”第一阶段收官之年，是京津冀区域雾霾协同治理的成果扩大之年。评估大气污染区域协同治理政策的实施效果，发现协同治理中存在的问题，继而推进大气污染协同治理进展，是当前理论实践亟待解决的重要问题。本项目以京津冀大气污染传输通道区域协同治理的“2+26”城市为研究对象，综合应用两阶段双重差分模型、演化博弈论、网格化管理理论等理论方法进行定量与定性研究。通过理论和实证分析，探索我国大气污染区域协同治理联盟的稳定性模式及保障机制。首先，在“差异-协同”视角下量化研究该区域大气污染治理政策；其次，评估大气污染协同治理政策的实施效果；进一步，研究大气污染协同治理政策的波特效应；在此基础上，研究异质性视角下大气污染区域协同治理的形成与稳定性；最后，根据上述研究设计政府主导的多主体分层网格化多向联动大气污染治理模式及保障机制。本项目研究为我国大气污染区域协同治理提出具有可操作性且行之有效的对策建议。

评估大气污染区域协同治理政策的实施效果，发现协同治理中存在的问题，继而推进大气污染协同治理进展，是当前理论实践亟待解决的重要问题。本项目以大气污染区域协同治理为研究对象，综合应用两阶段双重差分模型、演化博弈论、网格化管理理论等理论方法进行定量与定性研究。通过理论和实证分析，探索我国大气污染区域协同治理联盟的稳定性模式及保障机制。首先，本项目研究了环境规制对中国工业污染排放强度、高技术产业发展、主观幸福感的影响，并且发现环境规制的正向作用；其次，研究了水泥行业产品产量对大气污染的影响及评估了错峰生产治理效果，错峰生产政策对大气污染具有显著且稳健的治理效应；再次，本项目研究了环境规制策略互动对产业结构升级的影响，以及地区间环保投入策略互动的对高质量发展的影响，本地区产业结构升级水平的提高对周边地区的产业结构升级具有推动作用，反之亦然；第四，本项目研究了雾霾污染时空演变与异质性政府协同治霾博弈，我国雾霾污染具有强烈的空间关联效应，上级政府可以通过提升对不协同方的惩罚力度和降低地方政府不协同时的冲突成本来提升监管机制的执行效率；第五，评估了中国省际污染排放效率及其影响机制，污染排放效率存在较强的空间集聚性；进一步，丛环保政绩的软性约束到实质问责、地方政府多维度竞争的激励机制、异质性地方政府区域环境合作治理探讨大气污染协同治理模式，多维度竞争机制能够适应当前中央政府推动全面高质量发展的目标要求，适度的偏好异质性有利于促进区域环境合作，特别在面临收益和成本决策时，需要合适的政策加以引导，以强化环境合作治理策略；最后，探讨了雾霾污染对城市居民节能家电购买意愿-行为的影响，意愿决策的结果与个体购买节能家电能够有效改善雾霾污染的认知和邻居朋友态度有关。本项目研究为我国大气污染区域协同治理提出具有可操作性且行之有效的对策建议。