碳税与碳交易政策的价格效应及其复合减排机制研究

Policies for low-carbon transformation are badly needed in the context of climate change. At present, carbon tax and carbon emissions trading are two important policy instruments, in essence, both of them achieve the goal of emission control through carbon prices (carbon taxes or carbon trading prices). Obviously, carbon pricing is the core of the mitigation policies, and the economic effect of the policies is a key factor to determine their feasibility and effectiveness. In absence of accurate quantity elasticities and stable market transaction prices, identification of price effects therefore the compound mechanism of carbon tax and carbon emissions trading has great academic value and policy implications. From a perspective of production linkages and price chains, price conduction coefficients will be used to describe the characteristics of carbon price conduction among sectors; the partially closed input-output price models will be used to simulate the direct and indirect effects of carbon tax and carbon emissions trading. Based on this, combined with the linkage characteristics of the production sectors, the combination of carbon tax and carbon emissions trading will be discussed. The analytical techniques are in line with the real complex world, therefore, will yield new insights on carbon pricing and its influence, and provide valuable information for designing of a feasible and effective compound emission reduction mechanism.

气候变暖引发的经济低碳转型，需要科学有效的政策机制提供保障。目前，碳税和碳排放权交易是常用的两种政策工具，其本质都是通过碳价（碳税或碳交易价格）实现对排放数量的调节。碳价是减排机制的核心内容，由此产生的政策影响则是决定其可行性与有效性的关键因素。在当前缺乏数量弹性准确估值和稳定的碳市场交易价格的条件下，着眼于碳价传导机制呈现碳税与碳交易政策的影响特征、进而探讨将其进行优势互补的复合减排机制，具有重要的学术价值和政策意义。本项目将从生产关联与价格传导的独特视角，采用价格传导系数提取碳价在部门间的流转特征，基于局部闭合假设下的投入产出价格模型模拟碳税与碳交易政策的直接与间接影响效应；在此基础上，结合生产部门的关联特征，探索碳税与碳交易政策的协同机制与组合方式，旨在为研究碳价及其影响提供科学的方法和新见解，为我国设计理论上可行、经济上有效的复合减排机制提供参考依据。

在气候变暖引发的低碳转型过程中，引导和规制转型的政策选择成为我国履行国际减排承诺、在发展中寻求减排而亟待解决的现实问题。本项目从生产关联和价格传导视角，研究了我国碳税与碳交易复合减排机制问题。在投入产出理论框架下，通过关联分析、相对价格、结构分解与投入产出价格模型等相结合的研究方案，论证了复合减排政策的实施对象，探索了碳排放分布的空间特征和地区减排潜力，呈现了碳税与碳交易政策通过碳价影响生产价格、消费价格进而引导减排的作用机理和效应特征，着重讨论了两种政策工具在覆盖范围和价格激励方面的协同优化机制。相关研究成果为研究减排政策的价格效应提供了科学的方法，为设计理论上可行、经济上有效的复合减排机制提供了新的学术见解和参考依据。