多重内生因素驱动的跨期减排决策优化理论与方法研究

The Paris Agreement imposes the external institutional constraints for China's energy conservation and emissions reduction, and also brings new opportunities for our country's structure transformation and green development. Considering our country is currently in the process of industrialization and urbanization, as well as the higher proportion of heavy industries and rapidly growing energy consumption, it will claim a big cost to implement mandatory emissions to fulfill that promise. Therefore, policy makers should fully consider the various factors affecting cost, and make a reasonable reduction strategy to achieve emission reduction targets under the premise of maximum optimization of the overall cost...Therefore, this project delves into the endogenous mechanism of emission reduction decision, especially from the comprehensive analysis of the inter-temporal first unit marginal abatement cost, double factor technology-driven, and endogenous path and so on which have essential influence on the cost of multiple endogenous driving mechanism to form a more reasonable inter-temporal reduction decision optimization model, and re-discusses the optimal decision path, policy design and other important issues. Under the background of the reality of the energy saving and emission reduction, this project will help to understand the evolvement mechanism of decision-making in the micro aspect, will improve and enrich the existing cost estimation method, and will provide the theoretical basis to optimize the design of the reduction decision making and policy. In sum, it is of important theoretical significance and practical value.

《巴黎协定》为我国节能减排、走绿色低碳发展之路提供了外在制度约束，也为我国的结构转型和绿色发展带来新的机会。考虑到我国目前正处于工业化和城市化的进程中，重化工业比例较高，能源消费增长较快，为了履行承诺而一味的强制性的减排必将付出较大的减排成本。因此，决策者应当充分考虑影响减排成本的各种因素,合理的制定减排策略,在达到减排目标的前提下最大程度的降低全局减排成本。..为此，本课题从影响减排决策的内生机制入手，特别是综合分析了跨期决策下第一单位边际减排成本非零的特点、双因子技术驱动作用、以及内生排放路径等对减排成本有本质影响的多重内生驱动机制形成更为合理的跨期减排决策优化模型，重新讨论了最优决策路径以及政策设计等重要问题。在节能减排的现实背景下，本项目有助于理解减排决策的微观演变机制，可以完善和丰富现有的减排成本估计方法、为优化减排决策和政策设计提供理论依据，具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。

在我国未来的2060碳中和目标下需要进行合理的减排决策，但是也要付出相应的减排成本。对动态情况下减排决策的合理规划是十分毕业的。本课题从影响减排决策的内生机制入手，特别是综合分析了跨期决策下第一单位边 际减排成本非零的特点、双因子技术驱动作用、以及内生排放路径等对减排成本有本质影响的多重内生驱动机制形成更为合理的跨期减排决策优化模型，重新讨论了最优决策路径以及政策设计等重要问题。在节能减排的现实背景下，本项目有助于理解减排决策的微观演变机制，可 以完善和丰富现有的减排成本估计方法、为优化减排决策和政策设计提供理论依据。