重金属污染对区域人群健康的影响及风险评估与调控研究

Supporting by the Natural Youth Fund, many achievements have been made in the field of Maximum Acceptable Risk Level (MARL) assessment and the study of the regional differences, including: 17 papers published as the first or corresponding author, of which 8 are taken by SCI; 1 monograph and 2 software copyrights. Now we’re willing to focus on one of the most concerning risks, the heavy metal pollution, and intend to build the regional public health impact assessment and risk management pattern for the need of China’s heavy metal pollution control by combining the public risk acceptable level analysis with the study of health risk assessment and risk management. In the first step, the whole-process investigations of heavy metal pollution and public exposure are conducted to estimate the exposure dose in the typical areas selected according to the characteristics of heavy metal health risk. Then the public health response to the regional heavy metal diseases can be calculated by applying the epidemiological survey and statistical analysis. Correlation analysis between public health data and exposure factors is also performed in the regional spatial dimensions. Afterwards, a model of health risk assessment is built to evaluate the risk level of regional public health, and the threshold and boundary of the entire risk management is determined connecting with the Maximum Acceptable Risk Level (MARL) obtained from risk perception survey. Finally, the best risk control programs can be developed based on the cost and benefit analysis of risk control scenarios and the feasibility of risk control techniques.

紧密围绕青年基金,在最大可接受风险水平评估和区域差异性研究方面取得了突破性进展。发表第一或通讯作者论文17篇，含SCI收录8篇；出版专著1本；申请软件著作权2项。基于此,以当前最为关注的重金属污染健康风险为深入剖析对象，将公众风险接受水平分析与健康风险评估、风险调控研究紧密结合，从区域尺度构建适用于我国重金属污染防控需求的人群健康影响评价与风险调控模式。首先根据重金属健康风险特征，筛选典型区域开展重金属环境污染和人群暴露全过程调查分析，估算暴露剂量；结合流行病学调查和统计分析，获得区域重金属敏感性疾病的人群健康响应量；在区域空间维度上进行健康数据与暴露因子之间相关性分析，计算人群健康影响，进而构建健康风险评估模型，得到区域人群的健康风险水平；然后结合风险感知调查获取公众最大可接受风险水平，确定总体风险管理的阈值边界；最后对风险调控情景进行费效分析，结合控制技术可行性，研究最佳风险调控方案。

近年来，我国“砷毒”、“血铅”、“镉米”、“铬渣”等一系列重金属污染事件呈现出高发态势，成为社会和公众高度关注的热点风险问题，而我国缺乏从区域尺度来开展健康风险评估的研究，对国家宏观风险调控指导性不足。因此，迫切需要研究符合我国国情和区域特征的健康风险评估模型。本研究充分结合重金属污染风险防控的迫切需求，构建涵盖重金属暴露分析、人群健康效应分析、风险估算，并与风险调控紧密衔接的健康风险评估模式，选择南京市栖霞区某重金属矿区、苏州市某重金属矿区、南通市竹行某重金属加工区及宜兴市某乡镇镉污染区开展人群暴露全景剖析，厘清矿区潜在暴露人群的暴露途径、暴露特征、暴露剂量，获得特定人群的本土暴露参数；测试生物样品和生物标志物，分析潜在暴露人群的健康效应，估算暴露人群的健康风险，应用蒙特卡罗方法处理不确定性问题；并应用空间回归统计分析模型，初步厘清重金属暴露剂量、相关疾病发病率、死亡率与不同社会经济条件、生活方式等要素之间的空间相关关系；开展公众对于矿区开发和加工过程中重金属污染所致健康风险的感知调研，估算风险最大可接受水平，通过与健康风险比对，确定总体管理边界；应用多元统计方法筛选关键调控环节，进而构建有针对性的典型重金属污染区重金属健康风险调控策略。同时还研究了政府采取干预措施或专门针对性降低暴露人群主要暴露途径暴露量后，人群健康效应的变化情况，将对切实落实政策有很好的指导作用。将风险评估与管理紧密结合，进而对我国典型重金属污染区开发过程中的重金属污染防治、健康风险评估与管理提供技术支撑，服务于我国日益紧迫的矿区重金属风险调控实践，具有理论和实践的双重价值。