生态文明的阈值和水平双指数测度方法

When evaluating or measuring regional ecological civilization, there exist some difficulties as follows: miscellaneous indicators, which deviate from the essential attribute of ecological civilization, are often confused with common evaluation of environment and economy; the threshold value of ecological civilization and the symbiotic relationship between ecology and economy cannot be measured; non-ecological-civilization districts are also measured with ‘ecological-civilization ruler’, so that some of the districts get prior ranks, because the economical and ecological indicators are offset each other… To solve those issues, a new method for measuring ecological civilization with threshold and level two-index is to be developed according to the symbiotic theory of human civilization evolution. A structuralized coupling chain is established from indicators system up to two-index of ecological civilization layer by layer, by means of grounded theory, PSIR and SEM structured models, ecological footprint, and Lotka-Volterra model successively. The whole process focuses throughout on the essential attribute of ecological civilization, i.e., mutualism between human and nature. It starts from the qualitative scientific attributes, links by the structured models of industry-ecology symbiotic system, and ends up to the quantitative models of threshold and level two-index. Then, regional ecological civilization can be measured in two steps. The first step is threshold judgment to confirm whether a district reaches the stage of ecological civilization, if not, how much the gap is. The second step is level judgment to assess the development degree of ecological civilization in a district that has entered into the threshold. Finally, by empirical research, the laws and reasons of temporal evolution and spatial pattern of ecological civilization in the whole country and the provinces of China are revealed, and then corresponding strategies are to be proposed.

拟破解生态文明评价/测度的现存难题：指标泛化，偏离生态文明本质，与一般环境经济评价混淆；无法度量生态文明阈值以及生态与经济的共生关系；非生态文明地区也用“生态文明尺子”去衡量，由于经济与生态指标相互冲抵，导致这类地区的排名反而靠前……为此，依据文明演化的共生理论，创立生态文明的阈值与水平双指数测度方法。依次运用扎根理论法、PSIR及SEM结构模型、生态足迹法、Lotka-Volterra模型等工具，构建从生态文明的指标体系到双指数的结构化耦合链。全过程始终聚焦生态文明的本质属性——人与自然的互利共生性：以定性科学属性为出发点，以产业－生态共生系统的结构模型为纽带，以阈值与水平双指数定量模型为归宿。据此进行二步测度：阈值判定——考量是否进入生态文明门槛，“未入门”区域与生态文明的差距；水平判定——考量“入门”区域的生态文明程度。实证研究全国及省域生态文明的时间演进与空间格局规律、原因与对策。

一、项目背景与研究内容.生态文明建设已成为我国的国家战略，生态文明建设的机理和测度的研究具有重要的理论和应用价值。.本项目组系统分析了我国生态文明建设的现状与问题；构筑了人与自然共生演化理论，以便从人类文明演进全景来研究生态文明；创立了生态文明阈值与绿值二步测度法；对中国生态文明水平进行了实证测度，并析了其空演化规律；研究了林业对生态文明的贡献；提出有效的对策建议及生态文明发展观和政绩观。..二、重要成果及其科学意义.本成果已获江苏省政府二等奖，并得到国家林业局领导批示。.1、揭示了生态文明的本质属性——人与自然的互利共生，并绘制多维属性图谱.[原有成果]认为，生态文明的特征是人与自然和谐发展，但和谐与否的边界模糊，难以定量。.[本成果]发现生态文明的本质属性是人类产业系统与自然生态系统的互利共生模式，其门槛是产业偏利共生。据此，绘制出人类文明演进的多维属性完整图谱：认识属性、共生属性、生态安全属性、产业属性和科学属性等。.2、创立了人与自然共生演化理论、超循环经济理论等.[原有成果]未找到描述人类文明演进的关键变量，缺乏理论上的探索。.[本成果]依据共生理论，发现产业与生态“共生度”就是支配系统演进的“序参量”，并建立相关数学模型，构建了人与自然共生演化理论。.[原有成果]循环经济只是“阻隔病源”降低环境破坏的消极措施，最终只能实现产业偏利共生的浅绿生态文明。.[本成果]将可再生资源型产业纳入循环体，建立了“从孕育到孕育”超循环经济模式，是一种面向深绿生态文明的“治病健体”的积极手段。.3、创建了生态文明阈值-绿值测度法.[原有成果]不区分文明阶段，导致经济发达地区的生态文明排名总是靠前，偏离客观真实。.[本成果]创建了生态文明阈值-绿值二步测度法、生态安全指数的共生空间测度法。实证研究表明，新方法能够更客观地测度区域文明阶段，对进入生态文明的区域再测度其生态文明水平，并能对区域生态安全做出提前预警。.4、将生态文明与生态安全作为有机整体，发现了两者之间的内在规律.[原有成果]将生态文明与生态安全两者割裂，忽视相互关联，以及文明演进对生态安全的先导性作用。.[本成果]发现：新工业文明的生态安全处于转折区；浅绿生态文明的生态安全处于临界区；深绿生态文明的生态安全到达稳定区。因此，文明程度是生态安全的“预警器”，生态安全是生态文明的“守护神”。