基于碳生产率的中国对外贸易损益分析及战略应对

International trade is characterized not only by the flow of capital and goods, but also by the CO2 emissions embodied in goods and services during their production. Large proportions of China's energy consumption and CO2 emissions are embodied in China's export and net export, which finally serve for foreign countries and increase the energy and environment pressure of China, thus comes to a problem of how to look on the CO2 emission embodied in international trade and its impacts. This study has tried to put forward a new view on the understanding of it. Emissions can be regarded as the consumption of some environment resource, thus the large export of embodied emissions can be taken as the indirect export of environment resources. In the background of globalization, it is more important to understand whether the large export of embodied emissions has brought about more benefits for our country. Therefore, gains and losses of trade is no longer confined to a country's net exports or net imports of carbon footprint, but rather to the extended connotation of carbon productivity, that is the GDP effects and employment effects of the unit carbon footprint. In this study, input-output analysis is used in the accounting of CO2 emissions embodied in China's international trade as well as the GDP and employment supply induced by exports, domestic consumption and investment. Then the comparison of the carbon productivity differences in China's import and export trade and the carbon productivity differences in China's export trade, domestic consumption and investment are conducted to reveal whether the current international trade development is conducive to China to obtain the maximum economic and social output with minimum loss of environmental resources. The influencing factors are then studied with the decomposition method to reveal the main factors affecting China's trade carbon productivity, and to give hints to the strategy of China's international trade to better balance the energy and environment pressure with trade benefits.

对外贸易中伴随着物质和能量的流动，也隐含着碳足迹的进出口。本研究提出将碳足迹作为一种环境资源投入，从投入产出效率角度审视贸易碳足迹。从而贸易的碳损益不再局限于一国净出口或净进口碳足迹，而在于同样的碳足迹投入是否能带来更大的产出，即碳生产率问题。因此，本研究拟将碳生产率的内涵扩展到包含单位碳足迹的GDP效应和就业效应两方面，从而在环境、经济和社会的三维视角中考察贸易碳足迹及其损益问题。并拟利用投入产出分析方法，在核算中国进出口贸易的碳足迹、GDP效应和就业效应的基础上，比较分析中国进出口贸易的碳生产率差异及其发展态势，比较中国出口贸易与国内消费、投资的碳生产率差异，从而揭示当前的外贸发展是否有利于我国以最小的环境资源损耗获得最大的经济社会产出？在此基础上，利用因素分解方法揭示影响中国外贸碳生产率的主要因素及其作用机制，从而以单位碳足迹的福利最大化作为依据，对我国的外贸结构和政策调整提出建议。

大量研究显示我国是贸易隐含能和隐含碳的净出口国。虽然贸易的快速发展推动了我国GDP 和就业的增长，但也对我国的能源环境形势构成了巨大压力。在面对日益严峻的国内国际减排压力下，需要回答的一个重要的问题是：中国大量能源与碳足迹的隐性（净）出口是否值得？为此，本项目基于资源生产率的概念，从经济、社会与环境三维视角来考察中国对外贸易的损益状态，并将资源生产率的内涵扩展到单位资源投入的福利产出这一层面，同时包含单位能源（碳排放）投入的GDP效应和就业效应两方面内容。利用投入产出分析，本项目核算并比较了中国对外贸易、国内消费和投资所诱发的能源消费、碳排放、GDP以及就业。研究结果显示，单位隐含能出口的就业效应随时间递减，这意味着通过出口贸易扩大来获得就业机会的增加，所需付出的能源与环境代价将越来越高。而与消费和投资的横向比较显示，出口贸易资源投入的GDP效应和就业效应均小于国内消费。这意味着相较于国内消费，出口贸易规模的扩大并不利于平衡我国的资源环境压力和经济社会利益。而我国当前以产品贸易为主的贸易结构也进一步加剧了这种失衡。因此，向内需主导的发展方式转型是我国协调平衡经济、社会与环境三方利益的必然选择，而就贸易本身而言，由产品贸易向服务贸易转型，由GDP导向转向以就业为导向，并逐步向人力资本密集型方向发展，有助于平衡我国对外贸易的能源环境压力和经济社会利益，也是我国对外贸易发展的主要方向。