果农线上销售渠道拓展：内在机理、匹配效应及政策设计

The study, above the previous research, aims to effectively support online marketing channels of fruit growers and further promote their management performance. Via the statistics and data acquired by investigating Jiangxi’s fruit growers and consumers, and by using comprehensive integrated qualitative and quantitative methods, it studies the internal mechanism, matching effect and policy plans to expand the online marketing channels of fruit growers. First of all, it explores the features of fruit growers’ online marketing channel expansion, measures the Internet adaptability of forest fruit products and fruit growers and adopts the diagnostic model of barrier degree to diagnose their adaptability. Next, via Logistic-ISM Model, it reveals the internal mechanism to expand the online marketing channels of fruit growers. Then, it analyzes the matching effect of the Internet adaptability of forest fruit products and fruit growers in expanding the online marketing channels of fruit growers. Finally, it applies the model of system dynamics to explore the dynamic effects of different supportive policy tools on the matching effect of the Internet adaptability of forest fruit products and fruit growers， and uses HMNL Model to explore the influential degree of supportive policy on their matching state，on these grounds，it brings forth the supportive policies. This study result will not only play a contributive role in enriching the E-commerce theory and marketing channel theory of farm products but it’ll also be of practical significance to promote farm products to go online, make farmers organically connected with modern agriculture, and realize the prosperity of the country regions.

本研究拟在已有研究的基础上，以有效扶持果农拓展线上销售渠道、进一步提升其经营绩效为目标，借助对江西省果农的调查获取的数据与资料，采用定性与定量相结合的综合集成方法，研究果农线上销售渠道拓展的内在机理、匹配效应及政策设计。首先，考察果农线上销售渠道拓展特征，测算林果产品和果农网络适应性，并采用障碍度诊断模型对林果产品和果农网络适应性进行诊断；然后采用Logistic-ISM模型对果农线上销售渠道拓展的内在机理进行揭示；再分析果农线上销售渠道拓展中林果产品和果农网络适应性匹配效应；最后运用系统动力学模型，考察不同扶持政策工具对果农和林果产品网络适应性匹配效应的动态影响，并利用HMNL模型考察政策扶持对匹配状况的影响程度，据此提出相关政策建议。本研究成果，一方面对丰富农产品电商理论和营销渠道理论具有重要贡献，另一方面对促进农产品上线，促使农户与现代农业的有机衔接，实现乡村振兴具有重要的现实意义。

本研究以有效扶持果农拓展线上销售渠道、进一步提升其经营绩效为目标，借助对江西省果农的调查获取的数据与资料，研究果农线上销售渠道拓展的内在机理、匹配效应及政策设计。首先，考察了果农线上销售渠道拓展的特征，测算了林果产品和果农的网络适应性，并采用障碍度诊断模型对林果产品和果农网络适应性进行了诊断，研究表明：果农的电商参与率高，但参与程度低；江西省主要林果产品具有较好的网络销售适应性，柑橘类果品具有开展销售渠道的先天优势；但果农的平均网络销售适应能力偏低；影响林果产品网络销售适应性的障碍因子集中于“质量”、“渠道服务质量”和“渠道交易成本”。其次，采用Logit-ISM模型分析各因素在果农线上销售渠道拓展中的贡献及作用路径，电商配套、产业发展程度、培训与补贴政策以及生产能力影响了果农线上渠道拓展。然后，分析果农线上销售渠道拓展中林果产品和果农网络适应性匹配效应，包括：第一，运用DEA-Tobit两阶段模分析果农电商经营绩效及其影响因素，江西果农经营农产品电子商务的综合效率处于偏低水平，其绩效受果农资源禀赋、环境禀赋、能力禀赋以及资本禀赋的影响。第二，实证分析了产品网络适应性、果农电商经营能力对果农电子商务经营绩效的直接效应与交互效应，研究表明：提高水果产品网络适应性有助于提升果农电子商务经营绩效，且对绩效处于中间段的果农更显著；果农电子商务经营能力促进其电商经营绩效提升，且提升效果显现“马太效应”。最后，分析政策扶持对果农线上销售渠道拓展及林果产品和果农网络适应性匹配状况的影响，政府扶持能够有效降低果农参与线上销售的风险，进而促进果农线上销售；提高电商产业集聚程度，能够增强产品网络适应性、果农电子商务经营能力及其协同效应对促进电商经营绩效的作用。本研究成果，一方面对丰富农产品电商理论和营销渠道理论具有重要贡献，另一方面对促进农产品上线，促使农户与现代农业的有机衔接，实现乡村振兴具有重要的现实意义。