医疗卫生制度改革中的微观模拟模型研究

The medical insurance of government employees and workers acts an important part in the social security system in China. Now, the medical insurance reform has been extended to the whole country and has acquired some achievements. However, the reform still has some problems, such as the optimization of medical insurance scenario, rational deductible, ceiling and co-payment, the perfect of supply medical insurance, and so on.Micosimulation model (MSM) is an excellent tool for policy analysis, which can implement the policy in the individual or the form and has powerful ability of disposing nonlinear process..On the basis of studying on MSM theory and modeling method, through the analysis of the medical expenses of Zhenjiang's Government Employees and Workers from 1997 to 2001, systems discuss the modeling and the programme of the Zhenjiang's medical insurance MSM, and simulation study on the medical insurance policy of Zhenjiang for five years, and then analyze the simulation results..Results of simulation study indicate: From 2002 to 2006, the medical expenses of Government Employees and Workers in Zhenjiang will increase with years. The retired is the primary crowd. In 2002, through the rectify of medicare policy, the social benefit fund begins to balance, but the balance is overabundant, and individual account still deposits too much.The MSM has excellent ability of policy analysis, and can provide theory gist for policy makers, so should be popularized in the medical reform..

本项目建立模拟个体医疗行为过程的微观分析模拟模型，编制相应的微观模拟分析软件，用于分析和预测各种医疗改革措施实施的客观存在观效果，寻求兼顾国家、集体和个人三方利益的优化政策模型；考虑各种混杂因素的影响，进行各特征变量之间的相关分析及多变量统计分析。探讨微观模型误差的三种来源：初始样本误差、建模误差以及随机模拟试验误差。