六盘山片区农民工贫困代际传递表现、机理及干预对策研究

Anti-poverty policy in China will have turned from getting rid of poverty to poverty prevention during the post 2020s, its focus being severing the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Migrant workers in the extremely poor areas in succession tend to be marginalized in both cities and the countryside and suffer intergenerational poverty. The project aims to figure out the reasons and mechanism of intergenerational poverty and ways of upward mobility for the poor. With the data of rural households and surveying data on the migrant workers by Ningxia Surveying Branch of State Statistics Bureau from 2011 to 2017 as well as data on the Liupan Mountains area by the current project team, multi-measuring approach was applied to study absolute poverty as well as relative poverty, single-income poverty as well as multi-welfare poverty. Intergenerational income elasticity and the comprehensive and decomposable index of intergenerational multidimensional poverty are introduced to survey scientifically the manifestation and tendencies of the migrant workers’ intergenerational poverty in the extremely poor area, and regional and intergenerational comparison is made. Then intermediate approach and Multilevel Logit Model are applied to analyze the influencing factors and mechanism from single dimension to multi-dimension and further explore the influence of intergenerational poverty on the education of the children. Finally, typical cases together with empirical results are combined to reach the conclusion and propose suggestions. The innovative idea proposed in this project is that urban and rural areas need to take joint measures to eliminate the migrant workers’ intergeneration poverty in the extremely poor area, among which education is the key and improving social security is the basis.

后2020时代中国扶贫政策由脱贫导向转向贫困预防，核心是打破贫困代际传递。连片特困区农民工有被农村和城市双重边缘化的倾向，易出现贫困代际传递。项目研究目标是寻找破解贫困代际传递的原因和机理，打通贫困阶层向上流动的通道。项目利用国家统计局宁夏调查大队2011-2017年度农民工监测数据、农村住户数据、贫困监测数据以及六盘山调查数据，从绝对贫困到相对贫困，从单维收入贫困到多维福利贫困，采用多重计量方法，引入代际收入弹性和可分解的加总代际多维贫困指数，科学测量特困区农民工贫困代际传递的表现和趋势，并进行区域、代际比较；然后采用中间变量法和混合效应logit模型从单维到多维进行影响因素分解和机制分析，并进一步考察贫困代际传递对子代教育发展的影响；最后选取典型案例结合实证结果归纳一般性结论提出政策建议。项目新见解：阻断特困区农民工贫困代际传递，需城乡联动综合施策，其中，教育是关键，完善社保是基础。

连片特区内的农民工深受区域内资源、制度、政策、文化等因素的影响，加之游离于城镇居民和农村贫困扶贫对象之外，易产生贫困代际传递，这不利于巩固脱贫攻坚成果，也不利于全面推进中国现代化。本研究以六盘山片区宁夏段为研究区域，利用宁夏国家统计局《农民工监测数据》、农村住户数据以及实地调研数据，基于相对贫困研究视角，从收入和职业，从单维收入相对贫困到多维福利贫困，实证分析了连片区农民工贫困代际传递产生的原因和机理，并提出政策建议。主要研究结论如下：.一是与非六盘山片区相比，六盘山片区内农民工相对贫困代际传递状况要更严重，并随时间的发展有逐步上升的趋势；女性子代个体贫困程度高于男性；本地务工相对于外出务工更易导致相对贫困代际传递。.二在多维福利分析视角下，个体特征、父辈禀赋以及农民工务工环境都对农民工相对贫困代际传递产生影响，父辈贫困的个体更易陷入相对贫困，并且，更易面临资源匮乏和社会保障制度不完善的双重风险。实证分析OLS和Logit模型也验证了上述结果。.三是教育和职业技能培训是欠发达地区农民工摆脱相对贫困代际传递的重要手段。通过Bowles-Gintis分解方法分析相对贫困代际传递机制，发现父代收入通过子代教育、健康和职业对代际收入传递的贡献率为23.73%，其中，父代收入主要是通过影响子代的教育和职业产生影响。.四是欠发达地区农民工相对贫困代际传递还有其区域或者文化方面的原因，外出务工更偏向于除自发外出方式之外的依赖于亲朋好友等社会网络关系寻求工作，导致其倾向于同质群体交往，易形成阶层固化与认同内卷化，不利于提升农民工向上流动的速度和质量。.由此本项目研究提出以下政策建议：提高经济欠发达地区农村公共教育水平；继续加强欠发达地区大农民工职业技能培训；提高农民工社会保障水平，推进农民工市民化；大力推进乡村振兴；；加强数字经济对欠发达地区农民工务工的引导。