变化环境下干旱区内陆艾比湖流域景观格局演变与水资源的相互作用机理研究

Under the common effect of climate and high strength human activities,the water resources and their supporting ecosystems of Ebinur Lake Watershed are degraded severely, and threat to the sustainable development of the watershed seriously.The study of watershed landscape is one of the very important parts in ecology, especially in hydrological ecology. The spatial pattern of watershed is related to its geographical constitution and formation.Therefore,the study takes Ebinur Lake Watershed as the research object, and focus on some theories and basic issues, such as the landscape pattern change, temporal and spatial distribution of water resources and water resources carrying capacity, etc. Being based on the Landsat MSS,TM/ETM, CBERS and Worldview-Ⅱ remote sensing data in different time interval, spatial analysis of GIS, geo-statistical analysis and model simulation, try to reveal the spatial and temporal heterogeneity and evolution trend of landscape pattern, and analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of runoff process,also simulating spatial-temporal variation of water resources in different natural environment and social-economic condition. Following this model, we will estimate all kinds of ecological water requirement and water resource carrying capacity. Meanwhile, the interaction mechanism and coupling relationship between landscape pattern and water resource will be studied,and we also will analyzing the surface-ground water system change caused by water resource development and ecological effect of water resource development by surface vegetation activities intensity.Finally, we will proposing the harmonious development strategies on "society-economy-water resource-ecology system" based on all of the achievements mentioned above,it will provide a certain theoretical basis and provide scientific basis as well as technical support for social and economic system sustainable development in Ebinur Lake Watershed.

在气候和高强度人类活动的共同作用下，艾比湖流域的水资源及其支撑的生态系统均出现了严重退化，严重威胁了流域的可持续发展。流域景观的空间结构与河流的地理结构及形成具有密切的关系。因此，本项目以干旱区内陆艾比湖流域为研究区域，依据1972～2013年间的Landsat MSS, TM/ETM+、CBERS和Worldview Ⅱ遥感数据和相关统计数据，运用GIS空间分析、地统计分析、模型模拟等方法，揭示流域景观格局的时空异质性特征及演变趋势；分析流域径流的时空特征和变化趋势，估算流域不同植被生态需水量及水资源的承载能力；研究流域尺度景观格局演变与水资源变化的相互作用机理，分析开发水资源所引起的地表-地下水系统的变化及其对地表植被生命活动强度的影响和演替规律的生态效应；提出流域"社会-经济-水资源-生态环境"系统可持续发展的对策，为内陆艾比湖流域生态-社会-经济可持续发展提供科学理论和技术支撑。

干旱区内陆河流域景观格局演变与水资源变化的相互作用机理研究在干旱区可持续发展及资源开发利用中具有重要作用。本项目以艾比湖流域为研究靶区，以现代地理学和生态学的理论、方法为指导，以景观格局-水资源共轭机制为主线，以长时间序列遥感数据（Landsat OLI, MODIS, HJ-CCD和GF-1）、水资源观测（水文参数、水质参数）数据和长期积累的人文社会经济数据为基础，实现了变化环境下的干旱区内陆河流域景观格局演变与水资源变化的相互作用机理研究，项目取得的研究成果如下：（1）建立了艾比湖流域地表水水质、水文及博尔塔拉蒙古自治州社会经济统计数据库。（2）基于多源遥感数据，辨识了40年来艾比湖流域景观格局时空变化规律，明析了艾比湖流域景观格局的结构、功能和动态变化特征；揭示了艾比湖流域景观格局的时空异质性特征；构建了流域尺度的景观格局预测模型，采用数量变化预测与空间变化预测相结合的方法模拟预测未来近、中、远期内艾比湖流域景观格局的演变趋势；（3）以时间序列的水文、水质数据为基础，分析了流域径流的时空特征和变化趋势，估算了艾比湖流域的各项生态需水量以及在现状条件及不同保护目标下适宜生态需水量；分析了开发水资源所引起的水资源系统的变化及相关生态效应。此外，基于光谱分析技术，实现了艾比湖流域地表水的ASD、二维、三维荧光光谱的水质快速监测，同时为干旱区水体光谱数据库的构建奠定了基础。（4）以尺度的集成模拟为手段，探讨了流域尺度景观格局演变与水资源变化共轭机理；分析了水资源在时空上的重新分配对景观格局时空异质性的影响，建立了人类活动以及环境变化下绿洲景观格局与内陆湖泊水域面积的响应关系；确定了以距400m 为缓冲区的干旱区水资源有效管理的空间尺度；揭示了流域土壤盐渍化是区域水质恶化及生态环境恶化的重要因子，从而确定了导致水质变量沿景观梯度突变的置信值区间。在此基础上，提出了艾比湖流域“社会-经济-水资源-生态环境”系统可持续发展的对策，为中亚干旱区内陆河流域水资源保护和利用夯实发展基础，为变化环境主导下干旱区水资源-景观协调发展模式的制定提了供理论依据。