生态补偿政策对特别困难地区农户减贫驱动机制及政策优化研究——以原中央苏区为例

To implement ecological compensation is to put into effect the spirit of the ecological civilization on the Eighth congress and an important strategic choice to achieve coordinated development among regions. Examining the effectiveness of ecological compensation policies have reflected not only the ecological security, but also the needs of farmers livelihoods, that is to say, the end result to set policy effectiveness is about on farmers poverty reduction in the most critical benefits achieved. Taking public goods theory, externality theory, game theory, ecological capital theory and farmer behavior theory for a direction, The study will establish the theoretical framework , the key factor indicators and quantitative analysis model of ecological compensation policy for farmers poverty reduction. It will take the former Central Soviet Area for a case to explore the changes of the ecological compensation policies and the household poverty level. This study will use the difference in difference regression model to clear the ecological compensation policies driven mechanism on farmers' poverty reduction and its impacting extent, use the AHP to build poverty vulnerability measurement model characterized by different county, township, village and family as a unit and use the expected utility to estimate vulnerability types of poor farmers. At the last, the study will analyze the behavior of farmers responding to the degree of ecological compensation policy and clear farmer demands for ecological compensation policy and its priority order. On this basis, the recommendations will be proposed to optimization the ecological compensation policies on the goals of farmer poverty reduction and the incentive compatibility. Those will be a scientific basis to develop and improve the follow-up ecological compensation policies for decision-making departments.

实施生态补偿是落实十八大生态文明建设精神、实现区域间协调发展的重要战略选择。考察生态补偿政策有效性不仅考虑生态安全，而且必须考虑农户生计的需要，即将政策有效性的落脚点置于农户减贫这一最为关键的利益实现上。本项目以公共品理论、外部性理论、博弈论、生态资本、农户行为理论为指导，建立生态补偿政策对农户减贫驱动的理论分析框架、关键因素指标体系及定量分析模型，以原中央苏区为研究对象，探索生态补偿政策、农户贫困水平的变化规律，利用倍差回归模型考察生态补偿政策对农户减贫驱动机制及影响程度；运用层次分析方法构建不同县、乡、村及家庭为单元特征的贫困脆弱性度量模型，利用期望效用测算农户贫困的脆弱类型；最后，分析农户对生态补偿政策的响应行为及响应程度，试厘清农户对生态补偿政策需求及其优先序。在此基础上，提出农户减贫目标下激励相容的生态补偿政策优化建议,为决策部门制定和完善后续生态补偿政策提供科学依据。

广义的生态补偿包括对因环境保护丧失发展机会的区域内的居民进行的资金、技术、实物上的补偿和政策上的优惠。因此，本研究把鼓励劳动力转移和移民易地搬迁作为区域生态补偿政策的重要形式来考量其减贫的有效性。研究首先从单一指标和多维指标分别测度区域贫困的现状；再分别从宏观和微观上两个层面探讨农村脱贫路径的有效性，从宏观层面探讨生态脆弱性与贫困分布的关系、自然资源禀赋与区域经济振兴、农村电子商务与农村区域减贫等问题，重点描述区域贫困的现状，区域经济发展对生态资源产业的依赖程度。再从微观层面分析农户健康水平、劳动力转移和易地搬迁政策对农户脱贫路径的影响，重点验证易地搬迁政策和劳动力转移作为生态补偿的重要形式在减贫结果上的有效性。. 从多维反贫困指标体系来看，赣南原中央苏区的反贫困程度仅为江西省的0.85；赣南原中央苏区绝大部分区域为中、强度脆弱区，占整个赣南原中央苏区面积的73%；赣南原中央苏区县域经济较高程度地依赖于矿产资源和林业资源等生态资源类产业、特别是制造业是拉动当前赣南原中央苏区县经济的支柱产业；而随着扶贫专项支出逐年扩大，产业扶贫中农村电商扶贫成为了资源变现、脱贫攻坚的重要抓手；健康水平对农村贫困户退出贫困具有显著的负向影响；鼓励农村劳动力转移就业对贫困户的贫困退出具有明显的政策效果。劳动力转移就业通过增加非农收入、提高家庭总收入来促进贫困户的退出；处于脱贫线上的非贫困群体在未来更容易陷入贫困，其贫困脆弱性程度均高于贫困且低度脆弱的农户。易地扶贫搬迁农户对于搬迁政策总体评价满意度为较满意和非常满意的占比和为44.34%，但农户参与易地扶贫搬迁政策的执行协商情况下较满意和非常满意的比例达到了73.44%。. 2008～2014年期间，赣南原中央苏区中贫困县的人均GDP增长量仅为非贫困县的60.73%；而贫困县的农村居民人均纯收入增长量为非贫困县的126.85%，减贫效果比较明显。最后根据上述研究结论，提出相应的政策建议。