环境规制视角下的长江沿岸化工产业空间演变、机理及优化研究

With the strategy implementation of "great protection" of ecological environment and "high-quality and green development", the constraint and reconstruction of the development and distribution of polluting industries by environmental regulation are gradually strengthened. As the most typical polluting sector, the layout of chemical industry has gradually given rise to both government and academics's highly attention. As the most typical chemical industry intensive belt in China and even in the world, the regions along the Yangtze River are already facing the serious dilemma of "chemical industry surrounding the river". This projects takes the regions along the Yangtze River as the study area, on the basis of chemical enterprise spatio-temporal database construction, plans to identify the different types of chemical industry space formation and separation process, industry spatial evolution law, reveal process and characteristics of typical chemical industry gathering areas and enterprises location selection, space growth and expansion. Select and analyze the key driving factors for the spatial formation and evolution of the chemical industry, quantitatively reveal the influence contribution of each factor, establish the characteristics of factors correlation and orientation, and depict the driving process and mechanism modes for spatial formation and evolution of the chemical industry and enterprises. Carry out scenario design of industrial layout in the future, and put forward suggestions on chemical spatial control and optimization. This study not only provides a decision-making reference for the layout of chemical industry along the Yangtze River under the Yangtze River Protection Strategy, but also enriches the related studies of environmental economic geography and sectoral industrial geography.

随着生态环境“大保护”和绿色高质量发展战略的推行，环境规制对污染型产业发展和布局的约束与重塑逐步增强；化工产业作为最典型的污染型部门，其布局问题逐步成为学术界和政府部门关注的焦点。作为中国乃至全球最典型的化工密集带，长江沿岸已然面临“化工围江”的严重困境。项目以长江沿岸地区为研究区，拟在构建化工企业时空数据库的基础上，识别不同类型化工行业空间形成及聚散过程、行业演进及转移路径等空间演变规律，追踪典型化工集聚区和微观企业空间增长、区位选择、迁移扩张过程与特征；选择和剖析化工产业空间形成演变的关键驱动要素，定量揭示各要素的影响贡献、建立要素关联与指向特征，刻画化工产业及其子行业、微观企业空间形成演变的驱动过程与机理模式；进行中远期产业布局情景设计，提出化工管控与空间优化建议。本研究不仅为长江大保护战略下的沿岸化工布局提供决策参考，同时也可以丰富环境经济地理学、部门工业地理学的相关研究。

随着全球环境与经济格局的深刻变革，环境经济地理学成为经济地理学的重要分支和方向。化工产业作为最典型的污染密集型产业门类成为学界及社会公众关注的焦点，对其区位的探究具有重要的理论意义。从实践背景来看，恰逢长江大保护战略实施推进，破解“化工围江”的命题被提到重要高度，长江沿岸化工产业格局也发生深刻变化，揭示和捕捉这一变化规律和现象具有重要的实践价值。项目重点开展了以下研究：①结合国内外相关理论、实践案例，构建了一套化工产业空间布局及演变规律的一般性假设与理论框架，提出了不同环境规制强度下的区位选择与区位迁移情形、产业梯度转移与行业结构演进、产业空间布局阶段指向性的理论假设。②项目采集企业、行业数据，建立了化工企业数据库；查阅历史资料与文献，梳理总结了长江化工产业发展阶段和“化工围江”的历史脉络。项目从细分行业、不同类型企业入手对化工产业空间分布、集聚特征与格局演化进行了刻画，发掘行业差异性特征。③项目从定量测度和定性研究两个角度揭示不同要素对化工产业空间演变的贡献和影响，其中发现了环境规制影响的时空差异性；也重点探讨了化工产业的“污染天堂”效应，政府执法更严格、公众环保意识更强和环保投诉频率更高的城市化工产业迁出更为明显，过去相当一段时间内化工产业出现由下游地区向中上游地区转移。④项目对南京燕子矶地区进行了重点案例研究，开展了百年尺度的剖析，增进了对更精细地理尺度、更长序时间尺度下特大城市内部化工产业集聚区发展历史和产业空间重构的认识。项目结合如何破解“化工围江”问题的思考，提炼长江化工产业布局优化的对策建议。本研究既丰富了环境经济地理学、部门工业地理学的相关研究，也为长江大保护战略下化工布局规律认识与政策调控提供支撑。项目在专著出版、论文发表、咨询报告撰写等方面取得了基础研究与实践应用相结合的综合性成果。