川藏铁路牵引供电系统安全风险评估方法研究

As the demand of national economic development and major strategic deployment, the design and construction of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is imperative. Affected by complex external geographical environment and severe weather conditions, the traction power supply system (TPSS) of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is in severe security risk. At the same time, the weak external power supply brings great challenges to the reliability of the TPSS. However, the existing indicators and methods are difficult to accurately quantify and evaluate the security risk of the TPSS of Sichuan-Tibet Railway. This project aims to reveal the mechanism of the impact of the external environment on the reliability of the TPSS of Sichuan-Tibet Railway by defining the reliability indicators which account for the power supply capacity of the system. On this basis, the risk assessment model under the multi-coupling condition is established. Through the method of system security risk assessment based on interval analysis, the stochastic variability of risk factors and the multi-dimensional scale variation characteristics of risk consequences are characterized to achieve the quantification and evaluation of system security risk. The weaknesses of system security risk is identified through research on security risk assessment methods based on GIS technology. On the basis of clarifying the mechanism of the factors affecting system reliability, the project puts forward the method of quantifying and evaluating the security risk of the TPSS of Sichuan-Tibet Railway, which is of great significance to ensure the security and reliability of the TPSS of Sichuan-Tibet Railway in the process of design, construction and operation.

作为国家经济发展与重大战略需求，川藏铁路的设计建设势在必行。受外部复杂的地理环境与恶劣多变的气象条件影响，川藏铁路牵引供电系统安全风险巨大，同时，薄弱的外部电源给系统可靠性带来了严峻考验；现有的指标与方法难以准确量化评估川藏铁路牵引供电系统的安全风险。本项目旨在通过定义计及系统供电能力的可靠性指标，揭示川藏铁路牵引供电系统可靠性影响因素作用机理；在此基础上，建立多元耦合条件下的风险评估模型，通过基于区间分析的系统安全风险评估方法研究，表征风险因素的随机多变性与风险后果的多维尺度变化特性，实现对系统安全风险的量化评估；通过基于地理信息系统技术的安全风险评估方法研究，识别系统安全风险薄弱环节。项目在阐明系统可靠性影响因素作用机理的基础上，提出川藏铁路牵引供电系统安全风险的量化与评估方法，对保障川藏铁路牵引供电系统在设计、建设、运营阶段的安全可靠具有重要意义。

作为国家经济发展与重大战略需求，川藏铁路的设计建设势在必行。受外部复杂的地理环境与恶劣多变的气象条件影响，川藏铁路牵引供电系统安全风险巨大，同时，薄弱的外部电源给系统可靠性带来了严峻考验；现有的指标与方法难以准确量化评估川藏铁路牵引供电系统的安全风险。本项目通过定义计及薄弱外部电源、恶劣气象条件以及地质灾害因素的牵引供电系统可靠性与风险指标，揭示了川藏铁路牵引供电系统风险因素影响规律；在此基础上，建立了多元耦合条件下的风险评估模型，通过基于区间分析的系统安全风险评估方法研究，表征了风险因素的随机多变性与风险后果的多维尺度变化特性，实现对系统安全风险的量化评估，并对系统安全风险薄弱环节进行识别；针对川藏铁路在恶劣环境、长距离无人区面临的运维难题，提出了牵引供电系统维修维护决策优化方法，旨在保障系统在规划设计、建设、运营等各个阶段安全可靠、经济高效地运行。在理论方法研究的基础上，以川藏铁路牵引供电系统为对象，构建了川藏铁路牵引供电系统安全风险仿真模拟平台，实现川藏铁路牵引供电系统动态耦合模型的潮流计算、供电能力、可靠性与安全风险评估进行仿真模拟。