应对灾变的核电厂供电系统安全风险评估研究

Natural disasters may lead to serious nuclear accidents, which have profound influence. They may bring enormous political, economic and environmental losses, and serious threat to the social psychological safety and public health. Nuclear power is developing massively in China. Nuclear safety assessment and regulation have not been fully recognized that the extreme disaster may cause the risk of nuclear accident. and so the study on the theory of the nuclear power plant safety risk assessment in the disaster is imminent. The power supply system of the nuclear power plant during normal operation is the premise of the effective exertion of nuclear security and defense. Study on the security risk assessment for power supply system of nuclear power plant coping with catastrophe is of an important significance. This project attempts to combine safety science, complexity science, catastrophe theory, and fuzzy mathematics theory to study the influence mechanism of the catastrophe on the power supply system of the nuclear power plant; to analyze the hazard factors of that catastrophe affects the nuclear power plant and power system and coupling of the factors; to propose security risk indicators of the nuclear power plant power supply system under the catastrophe.This project will provide a theoretical basis to establish the model of nuclear power plant power supply system for probabilistic risk assessment, and provide support for establishing effective measures to improve the ability of nuclear power plants and power systems coping with the catastrophe.

自然灾害可能引发严重的核事故，其影响极其深远，可能带来巨大的政治、经济损失及社会环境影响，且严重威胁社会心理安全和公众健康。我国核电正在大规模发展，核安全评估和监管尚未充分认识极端灾害可能引发核事故的风险，对灾变下核电厂安全风险评估理论的研究已迫在眉睫。核电厂供电系统正常运行是核安全防御有效发挥的前提，研究应对灾变的核电厂供电系统安全风险评估具有重要意义。本项目结合安全科学、复杂性科学、灾变理论、模糊数学等方面的理论，研究灾变对核电厂供电系统的影响机理；分析灾变影响核电厂和电力系统安全的致灾因子及其相关性；提出核电厂供电系统应对灾变的措施；为建立应对灾变的核电厂供电系统安全风险模型奠定基础，为制定有效措施提高核电厂及所接入的电力系统应对灾变的能力提供理论依据。

自然灾害可能引发严重的核事故，其影响极其深远。我国核电正在大规模发展，核安全评估和监管亟需充分认识极端灾害可能引发核事故的风险。核电厂供电系统正常运行是核安全防御有效发挥的前提，研究应对灾变的核电厂供电系统安全风险评估具有重要意义。本项目结合可靠性理论、复杂性科学、灾变理论、概率风险评价等方面的理论研究灾变对核电厂供电系统安全影响的机理，建立灾变下核电厂供电系统致灾因子模型，提出核电厂供电系统应对灾变的相关措施，主要工作及成果有：.（1）调研了核电厂供电系统典型接线方式、运行方式、符合水平、随机故障特征和历年受灾数据，基于调研数据研究了灾变对核电厂供电系统的影响机理。.（2）分析灾变影响核电厂和电力系统安全的致灾因子及其相关性，并以此计算电力系统群发性故障及对核电厂供电系统安全的影响因子。.（3）针对预测核电厂自然灾害预警，提出了一种基于相关向量机的核电厂自然灾害预测方法。该方法可以有效提高核电厂故障预测精度并赋予预测结果统计学意义，并实现核电厂事故的概率计算，从而为电力部门的防止自然灾害工作提供预警。.（4）研究了基于模糊层次分析及共因失效模型的核电厂供电系统致灾因子模型，并基于MATLAB/SIMULINK平台搭建了模型进行可靠性分析，结果表明该模型能够很好的评估自然灾害引发核电厂事故的概率，验证了该模型的准确性和实用性。.（5）提出核电厂供电系统应对灾变的措施；为建立应对灾变的核电厂供电系统安全风险模型奠定基础，为制定有效措施提高核电厂及所接入的电力系统应对灾变的能力提供理论依据。.项目组按计划完成了项目要求的研究内容。结合本项目的研究，在各类学术期刊及国际会议上发表了学术论文7篇，国家发明专利3项，培养了博士后1人、研究生4人，其中已毕业2人。