微观尺度下城镇空间扩张对生态系统服务的影响

The continuous expansion of urban space in the process of rapid urbanization has great influence on the supply of regional ecosystem services. Accurate identification of the impact of urban expansion on ecosystem services is beneficial to the scientific delineation of urban growth boundary and ecological red line, and optimization of urban space layout. Previous research use spatial morphological measures to analyze the effect mechanism at the mid-macro scale, which is insufficient to smart control of urban space. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal relationship between geographic process and ecological process at micro scale. Taking account of spatial, economic and social characteristics of urban expansion, a multi-dimensional evaluation index system of urban spatial expansion is devised for the comprehensive expression and the evolution characteristics analysis of urban spatial expansion at micro scale. Based on InVEST model, the key ecological factors are identified, the typical ecosystem services are quantitatively evaluated, and their spatio-temporal variations are revealed. By combining the spatio-temporal data association rules mining method and the spatial panel data analysis model, the effective association confidences between the main driving factors of urban spatial expansion and the key factors of ecosystem services are analyzed at micro scale, and the micro effect mechanism of urban spatial expansion on ecosystem services is explored. The research is potential to support smart decision-making for the urban space control and ecosystem protection.

快速城镇化过程中城镇空间的持续扩张，对区域生态系统服务的供给产生巨大干扰。准确识别城镇空间扩张对生态系统服务的影响，对于科学划定城镇扩张边界和生态红线、合理优化城镇空间布局意义重大。现有研究大多使用空间形态测度从中-宏观尺度开展相关机理分析，难于满足精细化调控需求。本课题着眼于微观尺度下地理过程和生态过程的时空关联，把握城镇扩张的空间形态特征和经济社会内涵，构建城镇空间扩张的多维测度指标体系，实现微观尺度下城镇空间扩张特征的综合表达和演进规律分析；基于InVEST模型，量化关键生态因子，评价典型生态系统服务，并刻画其时空变化规律；将时空数据关联规则挖掘与空间面板数据模型结合起来，挖掘城镇空间扩张主控要素变化与生态系统服务关键因子变化之间有效时空关联规则，解析城镇空间扩张对生态系统服务的微观影响机理。此研究可为精细化的城镇空间管控和生态系统保护提供决策依据。

快速城镇化背景下城镇空间的持续扩张对区域生态系统服务的功能、结构和供需关系产生了显著影响。识别城镇空间扩张对生态系统服务的影响机理已成为城市可持续发展研究的重点议题，对于可持续城市规划和生态系统保护有着重要意义。本项目着眼于城镇空间扩张的社会-生态过程和格局，以武汉市、长江中游城市群和全国县域城市为研究对象，尝试从栅格尺度和县域尺度揭示城镇空间扩张对生态服务的影响。研究构建了城镇空间扩张的多维指标体系，基于土地利用转移矩阵和动态度分析方法，探测了研究区城镇空间扩张的时空变化特征及其拐点效应；基于改进了生态系统服务价值当量评估方法和InVEST模型，评估了研究区重要生态系统服务的物质量和价值量时空变化，探讨了生态系统服务的空间依赖性和空间溢出效应；基于改进的生态系统服务供需矩阵和基尼系数，构建了生态系统服务供需公平性测度体系，探测了区域生态系统的供需格局及其公平性变化特征；综合运用空间面板数据分析、最小二乘法、空间回归分析等方法，从多个维度和不同空间尺度揭示了快速城市化背景下城镇空间扩张对生态系统服务的影响机制，为提出精细化的城镇空间管控和生态系统服务保护对策提供了科学依据。