规划外城镇用地扩张的微观决策机理与差别化治理研究

Large-scale urban development that non-conforming to zoning maps is challenging the growth management in China, making studies on the causes and impacts of the non-conformances of great urgency and importance. Focusing on decision-making behaviors of land development, this project intends to connect plans, behaviors, and outcomes, and further to explain the micro driving mechanism of non-conforming urban expansion and its effects on plan implementation. Firstly, the non-conforming urban development will be evaluated with multi indicators, with the purpose to reveal to what extent the non-conformances deviate from the plans. Secondly, by constructing an inclusive explanatory framework with both top-down and bottom-up approaches, this project aims to reveal the roles of location preferences, planning constraints, and agent interactions in decision making based on the following steps: (1) measuring preferences in site selection of real estate and manufacturing development projects by using Hedonic and Logistic models, respectively; (2) assessing plans’ influences on decision making with the analytic framework that will be built through integrating and extending the conformance and performance criteria; (3) simulating the interactions among different agents in decision making and the results with multi-agent model. Finally, the project will put forward differentiated adaptive strategies for governing non-conforming urban expansion. This project is hoped to contribute to enriching theoretical and empirical studies on the roles of local governments, market forces, and planning regulations in urban sprawl and its governance, and to generate enlightenments for the ongoing reform of land use regulation system in China.

规划外城镇用地大规模扩张对城市增长管理构成严峻挑战，迫切需要在成因解释与效应分析的基础上进行科学治理。本研究以土地开发选址的决策行为为切入点，建立“规划—行为—结果”的因果关联，探究规划外城镇用地扩张的微观驱动机制和对规划实施的影响。首先，对规划外城镇用地扩张进行多维测度与评价，揭示其与规划的冲突程度。其次，构建“自下而上”和“自上而下”相结合的土地开发决策行为解释框架，阐明在选址偏好、规划约束和主体交互综合作用下决策选择的形成机理：①利用Hedonic模型和Logistic模型测度不同类型项目选址偏好的驱动作用；②通过整合和拓展一致性理论与效能理论解析规划的制约作用；③基于ABM模拟主体交互行为与决策方案生成。最后，结合上述研究提出差别化、适应性的规划外城镇用地扩张治理策略。本研究有助于丰富和发展城市扩张及其治理中政府、市场和规划作用角色的理论与经验研究，为推进规划用途管制建设提供启示。

围绕规划外城镇用地扩张的识别、评价、解释和治理研究，主要成果和学术贡献包括以下七个方面。（1）从用地演化、空间形态、分布格局和数量指标等多个角度改进了土地开发利用和规划空间一致性的评价方法，实现对规划外城镇用地的多维识别与测度，有利于揭示规划外城镇用地的空间分布格局特征及其对规划图则的违背程度和规划外城镇用地扩张的直接驱动因素。（2）从有关主体土地开发项目选址决策的角度阐释了规划外城镇用地扩张的微观机理。建立了包括地方政府、开发商和土地产权人在内并区分正规和非正规土地开发的规划外城镇用地开发多主体行为逻辑分析框架。基于该理论分析框架的案例研究，揭示了地方政府、开发商和土地产权人在规划外城镇用地开发中的角色作用、行为逻辑和互动关系，特别是揭示了地方政府在规划外土地开发中平衡政治风险和地方利益的策略性行为。创新性地将地方政府在规划外城镇用地扩张中的角色区分为三类——企业家型、公共服务型和监管型政府（entrepreneurial, service-oriented, and regulatory local governments），分析了不同角色的行为逻辑。（3）基于实证研究，解析了地方政府作用和市场力量在规划外城镇用地开发中的驱动作用。（4）基于仿真模拟技术，揭示了土地开发决策者的风险偏好对规划实施响应和城市空间扩张布局的影响。（5）整合和拓展现有规划实施有效性评价理论与方法，并通过将其应用于案例研究和实证研究，考察了规划在规划外城镇用地开发中的约束作用。（6）从土地利用效率、生态环境效应、碳排放、耕地保护影响等多个方面评价了城市扩张、特别是规划外城镇用地扩张的影响。（7）结合以上研究成果、文献综述和实践经验，提出了差异化的存量规划外城镇用地处置策略及其选择依据和未来规划外城镇用地开发的管控与治理策略。