PPP项目中信任的动态演化机理研究：基于政府部门的视角

Trust can overcome the obvious barriers and adversarial mentality between the two sides of PPP projects which are prevalent in China. It is another way to reduce transaction risk besides control which the government used to depend on excessively, and will remedy the deficiency of control in reducing trasaction risk properly. In this way, the efficiency of PPP in China will be improved. The key for the government to cultivate trust in PPP projects is to grasp its dynamic evolution rule. Therefore, this study will take the function of trust for governing information asymmetry as the breakthrough point, and attempt to reveal the dynamic evolution mechanism of trust in PPP projects within the context of Chinese management mainly through longitudinal study. The main contents of this study are as follows: ⑴analyzing the developing process of trust in PPP projects with evolutionary game theory to establish the framework of trust and identify the drivers of trust in different phases; ⑵conducting a empirical analysis of the trust's drivers with structural equation modeling (SEM) in order to confirm the drivers of trust in different phases and the difference of their effect, which indicate the keys in cultivating trust; ⑶analyzing the dynamic data of trust level and trust framework from longitudinal study with time series to get the developing track diagram of trust in PPP projects, which indicates the objectives of trust cultivating at every stage. Based on this, suggestions for the government to cultivate trust efficiently in PPP projects will be offered. This study will make the theory of project governance more explicable to construction practices. The application of its findings in the practices can help the government to improve the relation between the government and the investor in PPP projects, which will finally lead to project success.

信任可以有效缓解PPP项目交易双方普遍表现出的分明壁垒和思维对抗，弥补政府部门依赖于控制应对交易风险的不足，进而提高我国PPP效率。政府部门有效培育PPP项目中信任的关键即掌握其动态演化规律。课题以信任对交易信息不对称的治理为切入点，主要通过纵向研究揭示中国管理情境下PPP项目中信任的动态演化机理：⑴对PPP项目中信任的发展过程进行演化博弈分析，重构信任的结构框架并识别各阶段信任的驱动因素；⑵运用结构方程模型方法对信任驱动因素进行实证分析，检验各阶段信任的驱动因素及其作用效果的差异，以明确信任培育的着力点；⑶运用时间序列方法分析信任水平与信任结构的动态数据，得出PPP项目中信任的发展轨迹，以明确信任培育的实时目标。在此基础上提出中国政府部门培育PPP项目中信任的策略建议。本研究有利于提高项目治理理论对工程实践的解释力，成果在实践中的应用可帮助政府部门不断改善公私合作伙伴关系，促使项目成功。

本研究按计划完成了PPP项目各阶段信任驱动因素的识别及其作用效果的分析，并深入探究了控制、公平感知两个持续性信任驱动因素的作用机理，而信任的发展轨迹分析则代之以更具现实意义的信任的外化描述和表征，主要研究结果包括：.⑴识别出初始信任的6个关键驱动因素、2个间接促成因素，并发现初始信任的三个维度（能力、诚实、直觉）对其总体水平的贡献度相差不大，从而揭示了PPP项目中初始信任的形成机理，发现其建立的三大途径包括权威方的推荐、他方的传递和己方的认知，公共部门可据此优化PPP项目采购；.⑵建立了私人部门履约绩效的判别矩阵，将PPP项目履约过程分为再谈判和无异议地执行合同，通过辨别私人部门在关键观测事件上采取的是基于合作的亦或基于机会主义的再谈判、角色外行为亦或角色内行为来判定其信任状况，进而实现了对PPP项目持续性信任的外化描述和客观诊断；.⑶发掘了PPP项目缔约谈判过程中信任的9个影响因素，分为交易双方的固有特征、交互行为与心理契约3大类，进而构建了该阶段信任影响因素的作用机理模型，得出PPP项目履约过程中信任的21个影响因素，分为8个类属，涉及政府方、社会资本方、公私双方合作3方面，PPP项目中信任的影响因素多而杂致使其不太可能存在标准的发展轨迹；.⑷揭示了不同角色感知（父子、兄弟、朋友、商人）下控制对信任的影响机理，以及不同项目获取途径（公开招标亦或竞争性磋商、是否存在有意向的私人部门）下私人部门公平感知对其履约绩效的影响机理，据此为公共部门提升与维持PPP项目的持续性信任提供了策略建议。.项目负责人配合天津市财政局推广PPP模式，以及作为发起人之一筹办中国PPP青年学者高峰论坛，为收集研究素材和检验研究结果提供了便利。通过对我国PPP实践的调研与思考发现未来研究方向：①不同类型企业充当社会资本的PPP项目的效率比较，以回应对我国国企充当社会资本的PPP项目的质疑；②我国市场层面PPP项目监管的优化问题，以便为我国PPP顶层制度设计提供理论依据。