中国城镇化演化与水泥工业碳排放的空间关系研究

Cement industry, which is recognized as an energy-intensive and high carbon emission sector, has attracted widespread attention from worldwide, especially on the improvement of production process, technological upgrading, alternative material and fuel, energy saving and emission reduction. Meanwhile, a closed relationship can be found between cement industry and the development of urbanization, particularly in case that urban expansion, the construction of house, roads and other infrastructure are considered. This relationship can be specified into three aspects: firstly, the consumption of comment is increased with great amount because of urbanization; secondly, the spatial agglomeration of carbon emission from cement is affected due to the development of urbanization; thirdly, China’s New Urbanization Strategy put forward new requirements on the energy saving and emission reduction to cement industry. Consequently, it is very necessary to make quantitative analysis and empirical research on the relationship between China’s urbanization process and the carbon emission of cement industry. This study will construct a dynamic CGE model for the carbon emission of cement industry, where the simulation of evolution of China’s urbanization between 2005 and 2050 will be designed. We are going to analyze the driving forces behind the change in spatial pattern of the relationship between the evolution process of China’s urbanization and the carbon emission of cement industry. The following question will be discussed: how to figure out the future trend of spatial pattern of carbon emission from cement industry in context of the differences of regional development, to identify the optimized path for the emission reduction of cement industry according to the requirements of sustainable development within New Urbanization, considering the situation that China’s urbanization process and the development of cement industry emerge uneven spatial characteristics.

水泥工业作为能源高消耗和碳排放集中的产业部门引起了广泛关注，尤其在生产工艺改进、技术升级、替代原（燃）材料、节能减排等方面。与此同时，水泥工业与城镇化发展紧密相关，特别是与城市扩张、房屋、道路等基础设施建设等因素高度相关。这种关联性体现在三个方面：一是城镇化带动水泥的巨量消耗；二是城镇化发展影响水泥工业碳排放的空间集聚；三是国家新型城镇化战略对水泥工业节能减排提出新的要求。因此，急需对中国城镇化进程与水泥工业碳排放的关系展开定量和实证分析研究。本项目拟构建中国水泥工业碳排放的动态CGE模型，通过模拟2005年至2050年中国城镇化演化过程,分析未来水泥工业碳排放空间格局变化的驱动因素，探讨在当前中国城镇化进程和水泥工业发展呈现空间不均衡的现状下，如何在未来逐步加快的城镇化进程中基于区域发展差异刻画水泥工业碳排放的空间格局变化趋势，寻找符合新型城镇化可持续发展要求的水泥工业碳减排最优化路径。

水泥是社会经济发展所必需的基础性原材料，水泥生产过程也是重要的工业碳排放源。中国是世界第一大水泥生产和消费国，随着水泥消耗的急剧增长，水泥生产碳排放也由1990年的不足5%上升至2014年的12.1%。与此同时，水泥工业与城镇化发展紧密相关，体现在三个方面：一是城镇化带动水泥的巨量消耗；二是城镇化发展影响水泥工业碳排放的空间集聚；三是国家新型城镇化战略对水泥工业节能减排提出新的要求。因此，中国水泥工业碳减排在城镇化加速的背景下面临严峻挑战，对城镇化与水泥工业碳排放的关联性问题展开实证研究成为了可持续发展目标的紧迫需要。本项目主要内容依次为：首先，探讨区域城镇化差异下的水泥消费增长驱动因素；其次，评估低碳目标下的水泥生产碳减排潜力；再次，预测水泥工业碳排放的演变趋势及其区域差异，并提出相应的减排策略。主要成果包括五个方面：1）基于人口、经济、投资等因素的区域差异，揭示了中国城镇化进程中的水泥消费驱动因素及其空间异质性特点；2）以低碳化水泥生产为目标，刻画了水泥CO2排放与熟料质量的动态机制；3）针对中国数据缺失问题，基于21个省级地区197条水泥生产线数据，提出了中国水泥生产过程中CO2排放因子的优化估算方法并进行了不确定性分析和稳健性检验；4）基于自下而上方法计算了16项水泥工业节能减排技术的应用潜力，进而通过情景模拟预测了2015-2050年中国水泥生产碳排放强度的演变趋势及其优化路径；5）基于22个省级地区182条新型干法生产线和75条立窑生产线等数据，测算了工艺替代、规模生产和原料替代等3种方式的减排潜力及其区域差异，将减排策略归纳为单因素、双因素和均衡发展三种类型，不同地区应基于自身减排潜力选择相应的减排策略。本项目的研究成果对于新型城镇化建设、区域可持续发展和国家碳减排目标等多目标约束下推进水泥工业碳减排具有重要的方法创新、应用价值和政策意义。本项目共发表SCI论文6篇，国内核心期刊论文6篇，支持完成博士学位论文1份，支持博士后研究工作出站报告1份。