生产资料生产与消费双重视角下农作物碳减排路径与策略研究

The high emission intensities of agricultural production inputs (APIs) for the production side and the excessive use of APIs for the consumption side are the main reasons for the rapid growth of carbon emissions for crop production in China. Previous studies have not yet clear the API’s emission transfer paths for the production side and the optimal consumption combinations for the consumption side, which impedes China to achieve the national holistic emission reduction goal. Therefore, based on the dual perspectives of APIs’ production and consumption, this project carries out the following studies: (1) compile a China’s crop emission inventory, and identify the high-emission potential crops and their crucial APIs. (2) For the production side, we combine the structural path decomposition (SPD) with the sensitivity analysis to reveal the key emission transfer paths and their reduction potential for regional crucial APIs, in order to uncover the emission reduction paths relying on reduce the crucial APIs’ emission intensities. (3) For the consumption side, we construct a multi-objective decision model to explore the optimal consumption mix of crucial APIs for high-emission potential crops based on the interaction relationship of crucial APIs, in order to clarify the emission reduction paths relying on reduce the crucial APIs’ application amounts. (4) Setting different emission reduction scenarios according to the emission reduction paths of crucial APIs for production side and consumption side, and quantifying emission reduction potentials for different emission reduction scenarios, in order to screening the optimal emission reduction strategies. This project will expand the research theories and methods, and provides decision references for the government to make reasonable and effective carbon reduction strategies for crop production in China.

生产资料生产端高排放强度和消费端过量使用是我国农作物碳排放快速增长的主因。当前研究尚未明确生产资料生产端碳排放转移路径与消费端生产资料最优消费组合，阻碍了国家整体减排目标的实现。为此，本项目基于生产资料生产与消费双重视角，开展以下研究：(1)编制农作物碳排放清单；辨识高排放潜势农作物及其关键生产资料；(2)生产端，利用结构路径分解模型与敏感性分析量化区域关键生产资料碳排放主要转移路径及其减排潜力，以揭示降低关键生产资料排放强度的减排路径；(3)消费端，基于关键生产资料相互作用关系，构建多目标决策模型，探讨高排放潜势农作物关键生产资料最优消费组合，以探明降低关键生产资料消费量的减排路径；(4)结合关键生产资料生产端与消费端减排路径设置减排情景，评估不同情景下高排放潜势农作物减排潜力，以筛选最优减排策略。本项目将拓展农作物碳减排研究理论和方法，为政府制定合理有效的农作物碳减排策略提供决策参考。

该项目旨在系统测度中国农作物碳排放基础上，针对农作物碳排放关键生产资料从生产侧与消费侧相结合分析中国农作物碳减排策略，主要研究内容如下：(1) 编制了中国区域及国家层面农作物碳排放与能源消费清单，据此辨识区域高排放潜势农作物及其关键生产资料。(2) 针对关键生产资料的生产侧，项目从生产系统上、下游供应链角度对关键生产资料生产过程碳排放形成机制及驱动因素进行了分析。并进一步分析了区域关键生产资料生产过程主要碳排放转移路径，据此评估了主要碳排放转移路径减排潜力，为从生产资料生产侧降低农作物碳排放提供决策支持。(3) 针对关键生产资料的消费侧，项目构建生产资料消费量优化模型，对区域高排放潜势农作物关键生产资料消费量进行了优化分析。并进一步针对关键生产资料消费量优化易引发农作物碳排放回弹效应这一问题量化了中国32种主要农作物碳排放回弹效应，并对诱发农作物碳排放回弹效应的生产资料及其回弹效应削减路径进行了探讨。为从消费侧降低农作物关键生产资料消费量的同时避免碳排放回弹效应提供了实证支持。(4) 基于上述研究内容，项目针对高排放潜势农作物及其关键生产资料生产侧和消费侧设置多种情境，评估了各情境下农作物碳减排潜力，并深入分析不同类型农作物碳减排的倾向性，进而提出我国农作物碳减排策略。基于上述研究内容，本项目共发表学术论文10篇，其中SSCI或SCI检索的国际期刊发表正刊论文8篇，另有一些论文正在审稿中，还有一些论文即将投稿。