移动互联网环境下交通出行模式的重构机理研究

In the mobile Internet environment, the emerging facilities, such as smartphone-based taxi-calling, ridesourcing, ridesharing applications and customized bus service, allow travelers to reserve transportation service and share transportation resource through Internet. Such sharing economy is profoundly changing urban residents' travel mode as well as their travel pattern (i.e. trip chaining pattern, trip departure time, travel mode and travel companion, etc.). This project aims to reveal the existing reconstruction of urban residents' travel pattern and its mechanism under the influence of the current mobile Internet environment. The nature of travel pattern reconstruction is travelers' re-optimizing their travel choices in view of their own values under the new environment. Therefore, the key to explore the reconstruction mechanism is to quantify travelers' new travel values. This study intends to apply both Cross-sectional and Quasi-panel travel survey methods to collect urban residents' RP and SP-off-RP data regarding their travel pattern choices. Based on the travel survey data, a series of travel choice models will be developed to reveal the reconstruction mechanism and influential factors. In this process, a two-step procedure will be considered for travel mode choice and sample self-selection biases will be adjusted. The models can be used to quantify values of urban residents of different types under different situations and estimate the probability of a certain reconstruction in travel pattern. The models can help decision-makers prejudge the trend of transportation market, propose and implement corresponding transportation management policies.

移动互联网环境下新兴的手机打车、拼车软件，定制公交等设施允许出行者利用互联网预约出行服务，实现交通资源共享。这类共享经济正深刻地改变着城市居民的出行方式并重构其交通出行模式（指出行链模式、出发时间、出行方式和出行伴同等方面）。本项目旨在揭示在当前互联网环境影响下，城市居民交通出行模式的重构现状及其产生机理。出行模式的重构本质上是处于新环境下的出行者在自身价值观的导向下重新作出的最优选择，因此探索重构机理的关键在于量化出行者新的出行价值取向。本项目拟采用截断式和拟追踪相结合的调查方法，采集城市居民交通出行模式的RP和SP-off-RP数据，并在此基础上研发一系列出行模式选择模型，揭示重构机理及其影响因素。过程中，区分出行方式选择中的两个步骤并校正样本自选偏差。模型可量化不同类型的居民在不同情况下的价值取向并估算某种重构发生的概率，可帮助决策者预判交通市场的变化趋势，并制定相应的交通管理政策。

本项目采用了追溯性调查法及RP（Revealed Preference）和SP（Stated Preference）相结合的调查方法，完成了针对上海城市居民的网约车使用情况，定制公交通勤和共享电动车使用意愿的调查。基于调查数据描述性分析与联合选择行为建模分析，网约车的使用主要改变了出行方式和出发时间的选择以及诱导产生了新的出行。在定制公交和共享电动车使用意愿方面，通过联合选择模型的分析发现上海市居民的使用意愿强烈，而价格和行程时间波动是影响使用意愿的重要因素。然而，通过交通需求模型的分析发现，受到运营成本的挑战和指定停车位数量的限制，定制公交和共享电动车对于现有的交通市场份额不会产生很大的影响。