易地扶贫搬迁项目区识别规划机制与土地综合开发整治典型模式研究

Poverty alleviation relocation is the “No. 1 project” of crucial fight against poverty. However, currently there are some significant problems in practical works that affect the achievements of poverty alleviation relocation project and the sustainable shake off poverty expectation of poverty households. These problems include recognition of out migration areas are inexact, selection of resettlement areas are “one size fits all”, the land use planning of project areas is absent, and the land resource allocation is inefficiency. Thus, it is urgent to conduct researches of mechanisms and models of land resources development and consolidation of poverty alleviation relocation. This program serves national targeted poverty alleviation strategy need. It focuses on remote and stone mountains type in Yanshan – Taihang area, ecologically vulnerable type in Liupanshan area, stony desertification type in Wumengshan area, and ethnic minority type in Wulingshan area. These research methods will be used, including spatial overlay, system dynamics, elastic coefficient, central place theory, multi-objective linear programming, logistic regression, CLUE-S model. This project aims to construct recognition and evaluation mechanisms of out migration and resettlement areas, establishes land resource planning and allocation mechanisms of project areas, and extract land resource development and consolidation models of the 4 typical poverty areas. The research results would provide institutional and mechanism guarantees to poverty alleviation relocation works, and promote land use science developments in poverty alleviation research field.

易地扶贫搬迁是脱贫攻坚战的“头号工程”。目前，易地扶贫搬迁还普遍存在迁出区识别不精准，安置区选择“一刀切”，项目区土地利用缺规划、土地资源配置效率低等问题，严重影响搬迁工程实施成效与贫困人口稳定脱贫预期，因此亟需开展土地资源综合开发整治机制与模式研究。本项目面向国家精准扶贫战略需求，以燕山-太行山片区深山石山类型、六盘山片区生态脆弱类型、乌蒙山片区石漠化类型、武陵山片区少数民族区类型为主要研究类型区，综合运用空间叠加、系统动力学、弹性系数算法、中心地理论模型、多目标线性规划、Logistic回归、CLUE-S模型等技术方法，建立迁出区与安置区空间识别与评价机制，构建项目区中心地规划与土地资源配置机制，研制易地扶贫搬迁土地资源综合开发整治典型模式。研究成果将为易地扶贫搬迁中土地资源综合开发整治提供实施机制保障与典型模式支撑，有助于扩展土地资源学科在易地扶贫搬迁研究中的学科发展建设。

易地扶贫搬迁是精准扶贫的重要内容，“十三五”期间涉及人口近1000万，摸清这些人口的家庭结构和生计状况，制定有效的后续帮扶政策措施，对“十四五”扶贫工作的开展和易迁人口的稳定脱贫具有重要的经济社会应用价值。研究主要结论：（1）易迁农户总体年龄结构老化，部分失去基本劳动能力，家庭结构原子化，低保户比重达到了30.9%，是全国水平的4.38倍，因病因残致贫高达94.26%。易迁户户主男性占比高达86.8%，峰值年龄65-70岁，初中及以下文化水平人数占比97.5%， 54.4%丧失劳动力，残疾人数占比23.3%，患大病人数占比4.6%。易迁农户的致贫原因1-2种的比重达89.3%，家庭结构脆弱是导致贫困的重要社会性因素。主要致贫原因因病致贫占比高达67.2%。（2）转移性收入、工资性收入和生产经营性收入是易迁农户收入的“三大来源”，搬迁前后相较，易迁农户的各项收入的绝对值都有不同程度的增长，但从占比上来看，转移性收入增加最多，生产经营性收入减少最多，工资性收入小幅度降低，而财产性收入小幅度增加。特困供养金、低保金和养老保险金是转移性收入的“三大来源”，特困养老金在转移收入中占了绝对的比重，低保金的占比也有较大幅度提升，而养老保险金的占比则有所下降。收入结构的变化表现为转移性收入占比快速增长，生产经营性收入占比快速降低，工资性收入和财产性收入占比基本维持稳定。（7）三河口镇共涉及易迁村36个，易迁户504户，易迁集中安置点15个。易迁户的空间分布与乡政府和市政府所在地和高铁高速等重要交通干线空间关联，非贫困村的易迁户数量更多，比重更大，但强度更小，空间集聚区在程鹏畈村、汪家湾村和吴河村。政策建议：一是加强易迁人口的健康扶贫力度，改善和减轻医疗负担；二是建立易迁户家庭状况跟踪监察机制，密切关注家庭结构脆弱的易迁户；三是发挥地方政府和市场主体作用，提高易迁户工资性和财产性收入；四是加大财政转移支付力度，确保特殊易迁户生活保障兜底。