区域服务贸易协定的贸易和福利效应研究

With the slowdown of the multilateral negotiations in the WTO and the rise of the new regionalism, the regional services trade agreements become realistic choices for all countries. At the same time, the relevant contracting parties are no longer confined to the developed economies, but also involve many emerging economies such as India and Mexico, who are ambitious to expand their services development space and gain more market share by concluding and implementing services RTAs, thereby enhancing international competitiveness and global industrial chain division of labor..Judging from the reality of China, there were only fourteen services RTAs concluded by China with a relatively small number of contracting parties, who are mostly developing countries and make up only a relatively small part of China's service exports. At present, China is in a critical period of new and old kinetic energy transfer and economic transformation and upgrading. Expanding the openness of service industries and developing trade in service through the regional service trade agreements can help China take the initiative in formulating new international trade rules, but also helps China to deeply participate in the global industrial chain division to improve the efficiency of domestic factor utilization, optimize trade and economic structure, and promote sustained and steady economic growth. .So far, theoretical and empirical research on the trade and welfare effects of regional trade agreements has mostly focused on the field of trade in goods, and there has been relatively little involvement in trade in services. From the perspective of services RTAs, the study of the impact on services trade and its mechanism of action is even more scarce. There are few in-depth discussions on the influencing factors and the role of the differentiated services trade facilitation effect of the heterogeneous services RTAs. The literature on the impact of services RTAs on the spillover effects and welfare effects of the contracting parties and non-parties is few involved..On the basis of summarizing the results and shortcomings of the existing literature research, the project intends to further systemize through three aspects: promotion effects, spillover effects and welfare effects to investigate the differential effects of heterogeneous services RTAs on the export of services by states parties, the possible trade spillover effects of the conclusion of services RTAs, and the possible impact of the implementation of services RTAs on the socio-economic benefits of States parties and non-parties. The research of this project enriches the relevant research results in the field of services RTAs, effectively participates in the process of regional services trade liberalization through the conclusion of services RTAs under the new economic normal, expands the services opening up and promotes services trade, and the healthy development of the order provides empirical evidence and political references.

鉴于WTO主导的多边服务贸易自由化谈判进展缓慢和新区域主义浪潮的兴起，缔结区域服务贸易协定逐步成为各国推进区域服务贸易自由化的重要方式。特别是经济新常态下，通过区域服务贸易协定扩大服务业开放、发展服务贸易，不仅是中国主动参与制定国际经贸新规则的需要，而且有助于中国增强服务产品的国际竞争力和市场占有率，对优化贸易和经济结构，以及促进经济持续稳定增长具有重大的现实意义。本项目拟从促进效应、溢出效应和福利效应3个方面，系统考察异质性的区域服务贸易协定对缔约国服务出口的差异化促进效应、缔结区域服务贸易协定带来的贸易溢出效应，以及区域服务贸易协定的执行对各国社会经济福利的影响。本项目的研究丰富了区域服务贸易协定的贸易和福利效应领域的理论和实证研究成果，并为新常态下中国通过缔结区域服务贸易协定来有效参与区域服务贸易自由化进程，进而扩大服务对外开放和促进服务贸易健康发展提供了实证证据和政策参考。

本项目以区域服务贸易协定为研究对象，探讨推动扩大服务领域高水平对外开放和促进服务贸易健康发展的国家战略需求问题。当前中国正处于实现经济从“高速增长”顺利转变为“高质量发展”的关键阶段，深入研究区域服务贸易协定对缔约国服务出口的影响机制、作用方式和福利效应，探讨中国如何通过与“一带一路”沿线国家和重要服务贸易伙伴缔结区域服务贸易协定来扩大服务开放、发展服务贸易，进而增强服务国际竞争力、优化贸易和经济结构、以及促进经济持续稳定增长，具有重要的现实意义。. 本项目的具体研究内容包括：①研究区域服务贸易协定影响服务贸易的理论和机制，即考察区域服务贸易协定影响缔约国服务出口的内在机理和传导路径，回答区域服务贸易自由化是否以及如何影响缔约国服务出口这一根本性问题，以便对区域服务贸易协定的服务出口影响机制和作用方式有更加清晰的认识。②分析区域服务贸易协定对缔约国服务出口的异质性贸易促进效应问题，深入探讨缔约国如何通过谨慎选择缔约伙伴、准确把握缔约时点和推动协定有效落实以更好的提升区域服务贸易协定的服务出口促进效应。③通过简约式参数估计和结构式反事实数值模拟技术，探讨区域服务贸易协定给各国带来的一般均衡比较静态服务贸易效应和福利效应问题。. 本项目的主要研究成果发表于《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》、《数量经济技术经济研究》、《世界经济研究》等国内高水平学术期刊上。出版学术专著1部。本项目研究取得的一系列学术成果，不仅丰富了区域服务贸易协定和服务贸易两个重要领域的相关学术研究成果，也为经济新常态下中国通过对外缔结区域服务贸易协定来有效参与区域服务贸易自由化进程，进而扩大服务领域高水平对外开放和促进服务贸易健康发展提供了实证证据和政策参考。