卫星平台可靠性的多源信息融合评估方法研究

Satellite platform is a combined structure of service system which supports one or several payloads. It provides payloads with indispensable supports to accomplish designed tasks, so it desires high reliability. As the development duration of satellite is shortened and the launch frequency is gradually increased, the evaluation of reliability of satellite platform is required to help improve the design for reliability of satellite platform and promote reliability growth, to provide clues for satellite platform orbital operation management and decision. However, as the number of the same type of satellite platforms is usually small and the very few failures can be observed for satellite platform system, it is very difficult to evaluate reliability of satellite platform. This project will use various information during the development and usage of satellite platform, such as testing data, history data, orbital data, expert judgments, etc, to evaluate reliability of satellite platform. To meet this end, this project will first research on the methods to process the multi-source information of satellite platform. Then the reliability evaluation models for instruments will be set up by using the multi-source information of instruments. Finally, the reliability of satellite platform will be evaluated by incorporating the evaluations of instrument reliability with other multi-source information. This project will use some type of satellite platform as application to validate the derived methods and the results can also be applied to evaluate reliability of other satellite platforms.

卫星平台是由卫星服务系统组成的可支持一种或几种有效载荷的组合体，为卫星载荷完成预定任务提供不可或缺的保障，因此其可靠性要求很高。在卫星研制周期不断缩短、发射频率逐步增加的背景下，需要通过卫星平台可靠性评估促进卫星平台可靠性设计的改进和可靠性的增长，为在轨平台的运行管理和使用决策提供依据。目前卫星平台可靠性评估面临同型号平台数量少、系统级失效数据少的问题，评估难度很大。本项目通过充分利用卫星平台在研制和运行过程产生的试验数据、历史数据、在轨遥测数据、专家判断等多源信息来评估平台的可靠性。为此，本项目首先研究卫星平台多源信息的预处理方法，再根据单机的多源信息建立单机的可靠性评估模型，最后在Bayes框架下融合单机可靠性评估结果和其他多源信息来评估平台系统的可靠性。本项目以某型卫星平台为应用对象来验证所得到的方法，研究成果可应用于其他平台的可靠性评估。

项目针对卫星高可靠性、长寿命、故障数据少，但在轨遥测数据多等特点，对卫星平台在可靠性评估开展研究。项目通过卫星平台在研制和运行过程产生的地面试验数据、历史数据、相似产品数据、在轨遥测数据、专家数据等多源信息的融合，解决高可靠性、长寿命、故障数据少的条件下开展可靠性评估的难题。项目开展卫星平台的任务分析与结构功能分解，对系统结构进行分类，对各类数据进行预处理，在此基础上研究基于性能退化的单机可靠性评估方法，以及研究了融合在轨遥测数据、专家数据、相似产品数据等多源信息融合的单机可靠性评估方法；研究了卫星平台系统的基于多源信息融合的可靠性评估方法，并针对某型卫星平台开展了应用研究，取得了良好的效果。