环鄱阳湖区居民福祉空间均衡的动力机制与情景模拟——福祉地理学视角

Well-being is a concept that refers to the state of people's good life, which is accounted as the fundamental starting point and ultimate goal of regional development. Spatial equilibrium of the regional well-being means a spatial convergence process in per capita well-being should be reached on the basis of gradual improvement of people's well-being and complementary of well-being structure. Regarding spatial inequality of well-being as core of the research, well-being geography provides a unique insight into the study of spatial equilibrium of the regional well-being. Thus, in this research, the region of Poyang Lake is taken as an example and the multidimensional evaluation model of people's well-being around the region of Poyang Lake is established according to the Amartya Sen's Capability Theory. Then with the application of the spatial Gini Coefficient, this research analyzes spatial inequality and structural unbalance of resident's well-being around the region of Poyang Lake. Besides, modeling approach of the Multiple Regression Analysis and Vertex Weighted Causal Loop Diagram of the System dynamics is employed to undergo a deep probe into the driving factors and dynamic mechanism of spatial equilibrium of people's well-being around the region of Poyang Lake. Finally, by using of the Vensim software, this research conducts the simulation analysis and scenario simulation of spatial equilibrium of people's well-being around the region of Poyang Lake. This research is conducive to the spatial equilibrium of people's well-being around the region of Poyang Lake for its expand the ways of thinking on the economic, social cultural and ecological environmental well-being around this district. Hence, it provides a scientific theoretical basis with government department for regulating and managing Poyang Lake's regional discrepancy and promoting people's livelihood projects.

福祉作为一个反映人"良好生活状态"的概念，是区域发展的根本出发点和最终落脚点。区域福祉空间均衡是指在居民福祉水平逐步提升基础上，通过福祉结构协调互补达到人均福祉空间趋同的过程。福祉地理学以福祉空间非均衡性为研究核心，为分析区域福祉空间均衡问题提供了独特视角。为此，本研究以环鄱阳湖区为例，根据阿马蒂亚o森的可行能力理论构建环鄱阳湖区居民福祉多维测评模型；采用空间基尼系数等方法分析环鄱阳湖区居民福祉空间非均衡和结构性失衡特征；应用多元回归和系统动力学关键顶点赋权图建模方法，深入探究环鄱阳湖区居民福祉空间均衡的动力因子及动力机制；最后应用Vensim软件对环鄱阳湖区居民福祉空间均衡进行仿真分析和情景模拟，并提出相关对策建议。本研究将有助于拓展环鄱阳湖区经济、社会文化和生态环境福祉的协调发展思路，有利于环鄱阳湖区福祉空间均衡发展，为政府部门对环鄱阳湖区的区域差异调控和民生建设决策提供科学参考。

区域福祉空间失衡主要体现在区域福祉空间不平衡性加剧及福祉的结构性失调两方面，区域福祉空间均衡是在福祉水平逐步提升和福祉结构协调互补基础上达到人均综合福祉空间的趋同过程。福祉地理学以福祉空间非均衡性为研究核心，为探究区域福祉空间失衡与空间均衡提供了独特视角。.鄱阳湖区的大部分县区是革命老区和特困片区，公共服务较为滞后，社会发展较为落后。增进人民福祉是鄱阳湖区全面建成小康社会的出发点和落脚点，区域福祉空间均衡是鄱阳湖区实现协调发展和共享发展的根本要求。不断提高鄱阳湖区的福祉水平，逐渐缩小鄱阳湖区的福祉差距，促进鄱阳湖区各县之间人均福祉空间逐步均等，这是鄱阳湖区推进区域协调发展和民生建设亟须考虑的重要现实问题。.（1）搭建了福祉地理学WOSTEEM新框架，为多种研究流派理解、认识福祉地理学和发展人文地理学提供了一个更为广泛的理论架构。解析了“区域发展”与“福祉空间”的关联逻辑，构建了基于福祉空间的区域发展空间均衡分析框架。.（2）对鄱阳湖区人类福祉时空不平衡演变进行了多视角、多方法、多层面的实证分析，定量探究了鄱阳湖区福祉空间演进的动力机制。提出了鄱阳湖区“滨湖－外围－流域”的空间嵌套区划方案，据此应用泰尔系数及其空间分解、基尼系数及其要素分解及收敛性等多种方法对鄱阳湖区福祉不平衡演进特征进行了定量分析。对促进鄱阳湖区福祉空间均衡的动力因素及其相互关系进行了经验分析和计量分析。.（3）从生活满意度和主观幸福感两个层面，从医疗健康、生活条件、社会关系、生态环境、休闲程度、收入状况、幸福感7个方面设计了鄱阳湖区主观福祉调查问卷，对鄱阳湖区居民生活满意度和主观幸福感进行了系统的调查研究和比较分析。基于主观福祉视角，采用独立样本t检验以及单因素方差分析方法、因子分析和结构方程模型，探究了鄱阳湖区居民主观福祉差异及其主要影响因素。