稀土资源战略储备预警系统及响应机制研究

The strategic reservation of rare earth resource problem has already aroused great attention among the public. However, problems such as the inadequate related domestic research, the lag of the implementation of reservation policies, and a lack of scientific foundation of the timing and intensity of intervening still exist. Based on analysis of the various factors of the strategic reservation of rare earth resources, the present research tries to build a database firstly by collecting the statistical data of the major influencing factors in the last 10 years on the foundation of an investigation of both sample companies and related data from national statistical authorities. Secondly, this research will construct a model of product price index-inventory prediction model and a monopoly price index-target storage level model, based on industrial economy performance analysis, to determine the critical warning value of the rare earth products. After that, this research will conduct a major components-autoregressive method to analyze the underground rare earth resources, and then, it will provide a reference for the decision-making of purchasing and storing (or releasing) rare earth products or sealing up (or releasing)(or combination of the above two ways of reservations) the underground rare earth resources. After this, complete sets of graded response warning program specially designed for different reservation subjects in terms of reservation ways, reservation scales, and compensation mechanism, will be constructed according to the warning situation and degree. Lastly, these systems will undergo a series of timely amendment according to the feedback information to make a continuously adjusting dynamic managing mechanism of reservation.

稀土资源战略储备已经引起社会各界的重视。国内最近几年才开始关注稀土资源战略储备，相关研究文献较少，稀土资源战略储备存在储备政策实施滞后、储备介入时机和介入强度缺乏科学依据的问题。本课题拟在分析稀土资源战略储备影响因素的基础上，通过对稀土样本企业和国家统计部门的调查，采集近十年主要影响因素的统计数据，建立数据库。在运用经济景气分析预测稀土行业发展趋势的基础上，建立稀土产品价格指数-库存预测模型以及垄断价格指数-目标储备量模型，确定稀土产品预警临界值；采用主成分分析-自回归方法对稀土地下资源进行安全预警分析，为作出收储（释放）稀土产品或对地下稀土资源封存（释放）（或两种储备组合）提供决策依据。根据预警系统的警情和警度，针对不同储备主体设计相应的储备方式、储备品种、储备规模和储备补偿制度的分级响应成套预警方案。最后根据反馈信息，形成不断修正调整的动态战略储备管理机制。

从稀土资源战略储备存在储备政策实施滞后、储备介入时机和介入强度缺乏科学依据等问题入手，在分析稀土资源战略储备影响因素的基础上，通过采集国家统计部门和稀土样本企业近二十年主要影响因素的统计数据，建立数据库。在运用经济景气分析法预测稀土行业发展趋势的基础上，建立了稀土行业经济景气黄色预警模型、稀土产品价格波动黑色预警模型，采用熵权法和灰色关联理论构建离子型稀土资源安全评价指标模型，并进行稀土资源安全实证分析，为收储（释放）稀土产品或对未开采稀土资源封存（释放）或两种储备组合决策提供依据。根据预警系统的警情和警度，针对不同储备主体设计相应的储备方式、储备品种、储备规模和储备补偿制度的分级响应成套预警方案。最后根据反馈信息，形成不断修正调整的动态战略储备管理机制。