复杂水域船舶通航风险演化与调控机理研究

This project is mainly to study risk evolution and regulation mechanism of ships navigation in the complicated waters. Channel, weather and hydrology in complicated waters in the rivers are changed frequently which result in more accidents and hazards, and it is the focal points by the supervision of maritime. This project is first to collect the ships navigation information in complicated waters with Portal technology to make classification and categories of signs and symptoms of ships navigation risks; combined with multi-dimension theory to describe the multi-dimension of ships navigation risks and simulate it; then zero leakage screening indicators of ships navigation risks and evaluate its signs and symptoms by the cloud calculation of various data and find approporiate regulation path. On the basis of present research results, establish a evolution path analysis model of ships navigation risks in complicated waters to analyze the interaction, media and regulation effects based on SEM in order to reflect the regulation mechanism of ships navigation in complicated waters. In the last part of the project, ships navigation regulation in the complicated waters is made to discriminate its effectiveness and simulation with the typical water as an example.This project is try to solve the basic problem of mechanism of ships navigation risks evolution and regulation in complicated waters. It is of significant guidance and popularizing value to improve the navigation capability in complicated waters, develop a application software, protect ships navigation safety under the different circumstances.

本项目主要研究复杂水域船舶通航风险演化与调控的机理。内河复杂水域航道、气象、水文多变，事故及险情多发，是海事监管的重点。课题研究包括利用Portal技术对复杂水域采集的船舶通航信息集成，运用多维矩阵分析理论对船舶通航信息进行多维矩阵表达，并实现船舶通航风险前兆症候的分级分类和计算机仿真；通过云模型对各类数据进行演化计算，实现船舶通航风险指标的零漏筛查及前兆症候评估，快速找到合适的调控路径；在前述基础上综合运用课题组已取得的研究成果，构建复杂水域船舶通航风险演化的路径分析模型，同时针对所构建的结构方程模型进行交互效应、中介效应与调节效应分析，据此把握复杂水域船舶通航调控对风险演变的作用机理；最后结合典型水域实际，进行复杂水域船舶通航调控合理有效性判别仿真验证。本项目立足解决复杂水域船舶通航风险及调控机理问题，建立模型并开发出应用软件，对不同通航环境条件下船舶通航安全保障具指导意义和推广价值。

本项目主要研究复杂水域船舶通航风险演化与调控的机理。内河复杂水域航道、气象、水文多变，事故及险情多发，是海事监管的重点。本课题综合运用数学建模、计算机模拟与原型调查观测等方法，主要研究了复杂水域船舶通航信息多维数据表达及集成，实现了船舶通航风险前兆症候的分级分类和计算机仿真；通过对各风险前兆症候数据演化计算，构建了复杂水域船舶通航风险评估指标体系；在前述基础上采用课题组取得的研究成果，构建复杂水域船舶通航风险演化的路径分析模型，同时针对所构建的结构方程模型进行风险指标效应分析，以此把握复杂水域船舶通航调控对风险演变的作用机理；最后结合三峡船闸这一典型复杂水域实际，进行模型和指标效应有效性判别仿真验证。本项目立足解决复杂水域船舶通航风险及调控问题，建立模型并开发了复杂水域通航风险分析应用软件，对在其他复杂水域通航环境条件下船舶通航安全保障具指导意义和推广价值。