城镇化质量与水资源约束强度的时空耦合机理及协同模式

As the internal and external environment and conditions are deeply changed, China’s urbanization process has stepped into a new transformation stage, which should mainly focus on the improvement of urbanization quality. However, the urbanization quality improvement is facing a severe situation of water resources constraint. Furthermore, the mechanism on how water resources shortage influences urbanization quality and how urbanization quality influences water utilization system are still unclear both at home and abroad. Therefore, based on the analysis of the coupling connotation between urbanization quality and water resources constraint intensity, this project intends to build a comprehensive indicator system to evaluate their relationship at first. Secondly, Northwest China, which is extremely short of water resources, is taken as a case. The project will reveal the spatio-temporal coupling pattern between urbanization quality and water resources constraint intensity in Northwest China, so as to delineate the problem region with low urbanization quality and high water resources constraint intensity, and find the main reason why the urbanization quality and water resources constraint intensity change synchronously or asynchronously. Thirdly, taking water resources related indexes as independent, endogenous and exogenous variables which influence urbanization quality, several quantitative methods will be used to reveal the coupling relationship and interaction mechanism between urbanization quality and water resources constraint intensity. Finally, some spatio-temporal coupling and integrating modes and some coordination countermeasures between urbanization quality and water resources constraint intensity will be put forward. This project may provide a theoretical and scientific basis for decision making on new-type urbanization constrained by scarce water resources in Northwest China and other similar areas.

随着内外部环境和条件的深刻变化，我国城镇化必须进入以提升质量为主的转型发展新阶段。但我国城镇化质量的提升面临着严峻的水资源约束形势，而且目前国内外对水资源短缺影响城镇化质量的机理以及城镇化质量影响水资源利用系统的机理仍不清楚。为此，本项目拟在剖析城镇化质量与水资源约束强度耦合内涵的基础上，构建二者之间的耦合评价体系及综合评价模型。并以水资源极为短缺的西北地区为例，通过城镇化质量与水资源约束强度的耦合格局及变化过程分析，重点圈出城镇化质量低且水资源约束强度大的问题区域，找出二者同步或不同步变化的主要成因；同时将水资源相关指标分别作为影响城镇化质量的独立变量、内生变量和外生变量，采用多种量化方法揭示城镇化质量与水资源约束强度的耦合关系及互动机理；提出城镇化质量与水资源约束强度的时空耦合协调模式及协同对策。本项目可为我国西北地区及类似区域水资源约束下的新型城镇化发展提供理论与科学决策依据。

中国城镇化进入以提升质量为主的转型发展新阶段，但目前面临着严峻的水资源约束形势，尤其是西北干旱缺水地区，相关研究更属于薄弱环节。为此，本项目在剖析城镇化质量与水资源约束强度耦合内涵的基础上，构建了二者之间的耦合评价体系及综合评价模型，并以西北地区为例，通过二者的时空格局及变化过程分析，重点圈出了城镇化质量低且水资源约束强度大的问题区域；同时采用多种量化方法，揭示了二者的耦合关系及互动机理，提出了西北地区及其典型区域二者的耦合模式及协同对策。主要研究结果表明：（1）2000～2014年，整个西北地区的城镇化质量综合指数始终介于0.4～0.5之间，一直属于中等水平，在时间上总体呈波动缓慢上升趋势，在空间上长期呈现出中等质量城市广泛分布而较低和较高质量城市零星分布的格局，而且分要素城镇化质量均具有较强的规律性。（2）整个西北地区的水资源约束强度综合指数一直在0.31～0.43之间波动，属于较强约束和弱约束类型，但在空间上表现出较大的差异，约1/3的地级行政单元属于水资源强约束和极强约束类型，约1/3的地级行政单元属于较强约束类型，另外1/3属于弱约束和极弱约束类型；整个西北地区及各地级行政单元水资源约束强度的次级指标及具体指标在时空尺度上也表现出较大差异，但其时空变化均有一定的规律性可循。（3）整个西北地区城镇化质量与水资源约束强度的空间耦合类型一直属于“低-低”（LL）类型，但整个研究时段实现了强解耦，达到了协调发展状态；分地级行政单元来看，二者的空间耦合类型和时间解耦类型都存在着较大差异，最协调的类型，包括“高-低”（HL）类型、强解耦类型主要分散分布在甘肃和陕西；最不协调的类型，包括“低-高”（LH）类型、强负解耦类型主要分散分布在陕西、宁夏和甘肃。该研究可为我国西北地区及类似区域水资源约束下的新型城镇化发展提供理论与科学决策依据。